- Yen firmed amid a strong wages beat, with real earnings now back in positive y/y territory. JGB futures are hovering near session lows, -14 compared to the settlement levels. US Tsys futures were slightly lower in morning trading, however has since pared losses to trade little changed.
- US/China jitters impacted the return of China markets from the LNY break. The US postal service halted inbound parcels from China & Hong Kong, which was another focus point. China and Hong Kong equities track lower at this stage.
- Looking ahead, the Fed’s Barkin, Goolsbee and Bowman appear and US January ADP employment, December trade and January services PMI/ISM print. Also the ECB’s Lane speaks and January European services/composite PMIs and euro area December PPI data are released.
MARKETS
US TSYS: Tsys Futures Pare Morning Losses, 10yr Yield at 4.50%
- Tsys futures were slightly lower in morning trading, however has since pared losses to trade little changed. TU is -00¼ at 102-26⅞, while TY is unchanged at 109-06+.
- Treasury futures continue to trade below their recent highs. A corrective cycle remains in play and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. TY key resistance at 109-10, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and open 109-31, the Dec 18 high. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish. The bear trigger is 107-06, the Jan 13 low. Initial firm support is 108-06, the Jan 23 low.
- Cash tsys yields initially traded 1-2bps higher this morning, however has since reversed those moves with yields now flat to 0.5bps lower. The 2yr is unch at 4.214%, while the 10yr is -0.4bps at 4.507%, the 10yr has traded in a roughly 10bps range for the past two weeks now, while the 2s10s has flattened about 4bps over the same period.
- US Postal Service is stopping inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong in potentially another sign of worsening trade tensions between Beijing and Washington.
JGBS: Cheaper, BoJ Masaki Talks On Policy, BoJ Tamura Tomorrow
JGB futures are hovering near session lows, -14 compared to the settlement levels.
- The BoJ will raise its benchmark interest rate if its inflation outlook for price trend to rise toward 2% is realised, according to Kazuhiro Masaki, the head of the policy department at the central bank. (per BBG)
- Inflation-adjusted real wages, a barometer of household purchasing power, posted their second straight monthly rise in December, up 0.6% against November's 0.5%.
- Cash US tsys are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest rally. Focus in the US turns to today’s ADP private employment data ahead of Friday's headline NFP data for January, not to mention the US Tsy quarterly refunding announcement, S&P Global US Services PMI and ISM Services data.
- Cash JGBs are flat to 2bps cheaper across benchmarks, with a flattening bias. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.3bps higher at 1.292% versus the fresh cycle high of 1.301% set earlier today.
- Swap rates are flat to 2bps higher. Swap spreads are mixed.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Weekly International Investment Flow and Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies data alongside 30-year supply. BoJ Board Member Tamura will also give a speech in Nagano.
JAPAN DATA: Labor Earnings Post Strong Beat, Real Wages Positive Y/Y
Japan Dec labor earnings data was mostly better than forecast. The headline nominal earnings rose 4.8%y/y, versus 3.7% forecast and a revised 3.9% gain In Nov. Real earnings rose 0.6%y/y (-0.1% was the forecast, Nov rose a revised 0.5%). Cash earnings on a same sample base rose 5.2%y/y, versus a 3.6% forecast, the prior was 3.7%. Scheduled full time pay rose 2.8%y/y, versus 2.8% forecast and 2.7% prior.
- The chart below plots the various earnings measures over the past decade in y/y terms. The top panel is nominal earnings (orange line) and real earnings (white line). Real earnings are trending firmer but below earlier 2024 cycle highs. Nominal earnings though hit a fresh cycle high.
- The bottom panel is cash earnings (green line) and base pay (pink line) on the same sample basis. Base bay didn't show the same degree of upside surprise but is running at close to 3% y/y.
- Some of the detail is perhaps not as strong as these headline beats suggest, albeit at the margin. Bonus payments were up 6.8%y/y, after a 24.9% gain in Nov. Hours worked also remained in negative y/y territory at -1.1%.
- Still, the trends should be encouraging from a BOJ standpoint and reinforce the Jan hike decision. Further real wage gains this year are seen as critical for underpinning a broader consumption recovery, which will be important to support economic growth and maintain a positive wage/consumption/inflation cycle.
Fig 1: Japan Dec Earnings Beat Forecasts
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
STIR: BoJ Dated OIS Slightly Firmer After Cash Earnings Beat
BoJ-dated OIS pricing is slightly firmer following the release of December cash earnings data.
- Japan’s December labor earnings data exceeded expectations. Headline nominal earnings rose 4.8% year-on-year, outperforming the 3.7% forecast and a revised 3.9% gain in November. Real earnings increased by 0.6% year-on-year, compared to a forecast of -0.1%, following a revised 0.5% rise in November. Cash earnings on a same-sample basis surged 5.2% year-on-year, well above the 3.6% forecast and 3.7% prior reading. Scheduled full-time pay rose 2.8% year-on-year, matching forecasts and slightly up from 2.7% previously.
- OIS pricing remains flat to 4bps softer across meetings through September compared to pre-MPM levels. However, both the October and December meetings now show firmer pricing relative to pre-MPM levels, reflecting the impact of today’s data.
- Market expectations prior to the January 23–24 MPM indicated a 98% probability of a 25bp hike, a cumulative 99% chance by March, and more than a full 25bp increase (108%) priced in by May 2025.
- Currently, the probability of another 25bp hike in March stands at 0%, with a full 25bp increase not priced in until December.
Figure 1: BoJ-Dated OIS – Today Vs. Pre-BoJ MPM (January)
Source: MNI – Market News / Bloomberg
AUSSIE BONDS: Richer & At Bests Ahead Of US ADP Data & ISM Services
ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +5.0) are richer and at Sydney session bests on a data light day.
- Outside of the previously outlined S&P Global PMIs, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
- Cash US tsys are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest rally. Focus in the US turns to today’s ADP private employment data ahead of Friday's headline NFP data for January, not to mention the US Tsy quarterly refunding announcement, S&P Global US Services PMI and ISM Services data.
- Cash ACGBs are 2-5bps richer after being 2-4bps cheaper earlier. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at -14bps versus -8bps early.
- The AOFM issued by syndication A$15.0bn of the new 4.25% Mar-36 bond at a YTM of 4.46%. A total of A$83.4bn was bid at the final clearing price.
- Swap rates are 3-5bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
- The bills strip slightly mixed.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly mixed across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (134%), with the probability of a February cut at 90% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Trade Balance data.
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed Slightly Richer & At Bests But OIS Firmer
NZGBs closed at session bests, 1bp richer across benchmarks, after reversing weakness seen in the aftermath of this morning’s Q4 Labour Market data.
- The Q4 unemployment rate rose 0.3pp to 5.1%, in line with consensus and the RBNZ, to be its highest since the Covid-impacted Q3 2020. Employment fell 0.1% q/q to be down 1.1% y/y after -0.6% & -0.6% in Q3, which was revised lower.
- Wages growth continues to moderate and is either near 3% or under.
- Given the data printed close to the RBNZ’s November forecasts, which also suggested a 50bp rate cut in Q1 2025, another 50bp on February 19 remains likely.
- Swap rates closed 2-4bps higher, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-5bps firmer across meetings. 49bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 126bps by November 2025.
- The local calendar is empty for the rest of the week.
- Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$225mn of the 4.50% Apr-27 bond, NZ$225mn of the 2.00% May-32 bond and NZ$50mn of the 2.75% May-51 bond.
NEW ZEALAND: Spare Capacity Building In Labour Market
The Q4 unemployment rate rose 0.3pp to 5.1%, in line with consensus and the RBNZ, to be its highest since the Covid-impacted Q3 2020. Employment fell 0.1% q/q to be down 1.1% y/y after -0.6% & -0.6% in Q3, which was revised lower. Wages growth continues to moderate and is either near 3% or under. Given the data printed close to the RBNZ’s November forecasts, which also suggested a 50bp rate cut in Q1 2025, another 50bp on February 19 remains likely.
NZ unemployment rate %
- There is growing spare capacity in the labour market with the Q4 underutilisation rate rising to 12.1% from 11.6% in Q3 and 10.7% a year ago. Thus it is not surprising that hours worked fell for the fourth straight quarter down 0.5% q/q and 2.5% y/y. The number of unemployed grew 5.4% q/q & 26.8% y/y after -24.4% y/y in Q3.
- Job shedding was focused in full-time jobs, another sign of weakness in the labour market. Any cautious hiring is occurring in the part-time sector with PT jobs rising 0.2% q/q to be up 1.4% y/y.
- The labour cost index rose 0.6% q/q with the annual rate moderating to 3.3% from 3.8%, the lowest since Q1 2022. Private wages rose 0.6% q/q, slightly higher than the RBNZ forecast, to be up 2.9% y/y down from 3.4% in Q3.
- The minimum wage is set to rise only 1.5% on April 1, while lower inflation and labour demand should continue to weigh on other wages, which should make the RBNZ comfortable that inflation is sustainably within its 1-3% band.
NZ wages y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
NEW ZEALAND: Labour Market Excess Capacity Reducing Participation Rate
Building spare capacity in the NZ labour market is helping to bring wage inflation down. In Q4 full-time employment fell 0.3% q/q to be down 1.7% y/y after -0.9% y/y in Q3 and hours worked fell 0.5% q/q and 1.9% y/y after -1.1% y/y. The number of unemployed rose further and is now up 26.8% y/y. At the same time, the working age population rose 0.3% q/q but annual growth has moderated sharply to 1.3% y/y, 2pp below the peak. There are also signs of this capacity impacting the labour force with the participation rate trending lower over the last 18 months with it now 1.4pp below its Q2 2023 peak. This has been driven by young people who helped to cover the post-pandemic labour shortages.
NZ hours worked vs full-time employment y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
FOREX: Yen To Multi Month Highs, Supported By Wages Data, Steady Elsewhere
Outside of yen gains, G10 FX trends have been very muted in Wednesday trade to date. The BBDXY index sits little changed and above 1300 in latest dealings, despite a 0.65% rise in the yen (returning China onshore markets with higher USD/CNY levels has likely provided some offset).
- Earlier we had a couple of support points for the yen. The labor cash earnings data was well above expectations, reinforcing positive wage trends as we progress through early 2025. Real wages have been back in positive y/y territory for two straight months. Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akazawa also stated that Japan is in a inflationary situation now. US-JP yield differentials continue to point to lower USD/JPY levels.
- Risk jitters also helped the yen. Headlines crossed of the US postal service cancelling packages from China and Hong Kong, which may be part of the recent tariff announcement by the US. This adds to uncertainty around US/China relations and weighed on China/HK aggregate equity indices.
- USD/JPY got to lows of 153.10, but sits slightly higher in latest dealings (153.35/40). This is close to Dec 18 lows from last year. A clean break sub 153.00 could see 152.55 targeted, a 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg.
- AUD and NZD haven't shifted much though. AUD/USD was last little changed near 0.6250, while NZD was up a touch to 0.5655. Earlier NZ jobs data showed spare capacity building in the labor market, although outcomes were close to market expectations.
- In the cross asset space, US equity futures hold weaker, down 0.40-0.50% for Eminis and Nasdaq futures, while US yields are close to unchanged.
- Looking ahead, the Fed’s Barkin, Goolsbee and Bowman appear and US January ADP employment, December trade and January services PMI/ISM print. Also the ECB’s Lane speaks and January European services/composite PMIs and euro area December PPI data are released.
ASIA STOCKS: China & Hong Kong Equities Lower On Trade Tensions
Chinese stocks opened higher but quickly turned lower as trade tensions weighed on sentiment. The CSI 300 Index fell 0.3%, led by declines in energy and utilities. Hong Kong stocks and Chinese e-commerce firms like JD.com dropped after the US Postal Service suspended inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong.
- Tungsten producers gained after Beijing announced export controls, and supermarket chain Pangdonglai saw a boost from strong Lunar New Year sales. Tech stocks, including the Star 50 Index, outperformed on AI optimism after DeepSeek’s new language model.
- Chinese software stocks, including Beijing Kingsoft Office, surged as traders returned from the holiday, driven by optimism over AI applications following DeepSeek’s release of a lower-cost large language model. In contrast, optical equipment makers declined amid concerns that reduced AI infrastructure spending could weigh on demand.
- Robotics-related stocks advanced after Unitree’s dancing robots gained attention during China’s Spring Festival Gala.
- Chinese Travel & Tourism stocks declined, with China Southern and Air China down ~4%, and Trip.com falling ~5%. However, regional tourism data was positive—Guangdong saw 80m visitors with ¥74b in tourism revenue (+7.5% YoY), Shanghai had 17.8m tourists (+6.1% YoY), and Beijing's retail sales from restaurants and stores hit ¥8.1b (+4.2% YoY).
- E-commerce & Logistics Hit by US Postal Suspension: Alibaba fell 2.1%, JD.com dropped 5.1%, and SF Holding declined as the US halted inbound parcels from China & Hong Kong, adding uncertainty to the sector.
- Elsewhere, China’s services activity slowed unexpectedly in January while maintaining its growth streak, according to the Caixin PMI, which fell to 51 from 52.2 (below the 52.4 forecast). The slowdown comes despite strong Lunar New Year demand, with firms citing market competition and trade uncertainties.
ASIA STOCKS: Asian Equities Mixed As Trade Tensions Weigh On Sentiment
Asian equities are mixed today as trade tensions weighed on sentiment, with US-China tariffs and US Postal Service suspending inbound parcels from China adding to uncertainty. Investors remain cautious amid signs of slowing Chinese services activity and a weakening yuan, though Goldman Sachs sees potential for a 14% rally in the MSCI China Index if Beijing delivers strong stimulus.
- Chinese stocks fell as investors returned from the Lunar New Year break, reacting to escalating US-China trade tensions. The CSI 300 dropped 0.6%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slumped 2%. Tech shares outperformed, led by AI software firms after DeepSeek’s release of a lower-cost large language model, though AI hardware stocks weakened on concerns about reduced infrastructure spending.
- Japanese stocks erased early gains as the yen strengthened on expectations of further BOJ rate hikes following strong wage data. The Nikkei is 0.20% lower after rising 0.8% earlier, while the Topix trade flat with banks like Mizuho and MUFG benefiting from rate hike speculation.
- In South Korea the Korea Development Bank announced plans to create a ₩34 trillion ($25.5b) tech fund to support sectors like batteries and biotech, pending parliamentary approval. The KOSPI is trading 1.20% higher today. Taiwan's TAIEX is 1.75% higher as TSMC trade 1.90% higher.
- Australia's ASX 200 rebounded 0.55% after Monday’s losses, tracking Wall Street gains. Mining stocks outperformed, with BHP, Fortescue, and Rio Tinto rising over 2%. Gold stocks also gained as the gold price hit a record $2,845/oz.
ASIA STOCKS: Equity Flows Mixed, India Continues To See Heavy Selling
Mixed flows on Tuesday, with South Korea recording a small inflow, while Taiwan continues to see heavy selling and a $1.7b outflows for the past 5 sessions. India has been the worst hit region this year with a total outflow of almost $9b.
- South Korea: Recorded +$310m in inflows yesterday, reducing the 5-day total to -$1.40b. YTD flows remain negative at -$1.36b. The 5-day average is -$279m, worse than the 20-day average of -$68m and the 100-day average of -$152m.
- Taiwan: Posted heavy outflows of -$577m yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$1.72b. YTD flows are negative at -$3.88b. The 5-day average is -$345m, worse than the 20-day average of -$229m and the 100-day average of -$126m.
- India: Recorded -$416m in outflows yesterday, leading to a 5-day total of -$1.17b. YTD outflows remain significant at -$8.84b. The 5-day average is -$233m, better than the 20-day average of -$413m but worse than the 100-day average of -$158m.
- Indonesia: Posted -$12m in outflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$70m. YTD flows are negative at -$258m. The 5-day average is -$14m, close to the 20-day average of -$12m and the 100-day average of -$10m.
- Thailand: Saw +$20m in inflows yesterday, reducing the 5-day total to -$102m. YTD flows are negative at -$321m. The 5-day average is -$20m, slightly worse than the 20-day average of -$19m and the 100-day average of -$16m.
- Malaysia: Registered -$4m in outflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to -$153m. YTD flows are negative at -$740m. The 5-day average is -$31m, better than the 20-day average of -$36m but worse than the 100-day average of -$26m.
- Philippines: Recorded +$1m in inflows yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to +$19m. YTD flows remain negative at -$101m. The 5-day average is +$4m, better than the 20-day average of -$5m and the 100-day average of -$2m.
Table 1: EM Asia Equity Flows
OIL: Crude Lower On Growth Concerns, But Less Iranian Supply In Background
Oil prices are moderately lower today due to a large rise in US crude inventories and rising global growth concerns from an increase in protectionism. Brent is down 0.4% to $75.87/bbl after a low of $75.77. It reached a high of $76.34 early in the session. WTI is 0.3% lower at $72.45/bbl after falling to $72.36 and an earlier high of $72.97. The USD index is down 0.1%.
- The sell off in oil has been muted following the new US administration’s policy to be tougher on Iran. Relaxed enforcement of sanctions allowed it to increase oil exports by around 1mbd over the last four years.
- Markets are more concerned about the overall impact on global growth from increased protectionism rather than China’s retaliation on US oil and gas. China’s crude imports are already less than 5% of the US total, according to Bloomberg, and are expected to easily find alternative destinations.
- Bloomberg reported that US crude inventories rose 5.025mn barrels last week, according to people familiar with the API data. There has been a sharp increase in flows from Canada to the US to beat the imposition of tariffs, which may continue given the delay is only 30 days. In terms of products, gasoline rose 5.426mn while distillate fell 7mn. The official EIA data are out later today.
- Later the Fed’s Barkin, Goolsbee and Bowman appear and US January ADP employment, December trade and January services PMI/ISM print. Also the ECB’s Lane speaks and January European services/composite PMIs and euro area December PPI data are released.
- Golds stellar start to 2025 continued today, with bullion hitting new all time highs.
- Having hit new highs yesterday, gold opened in Asia this morning at US$2842.71 and traded up for most of the day reaching a high of $2,858.17.
- China’s retaliation in the trade war yesterday came from Beijing yesterday when they announced tariffs on US energy imports, oil, agricultural equipment, announced key US companies were to be place on a blacklist and that Google were to be investigated for anti-trust violations.
- Whilst the tariff news was brushed off by many equity markets, the USD weakened, giving room for gold to rally.
- Gold enjoys ‘safe haven’ status as an asset, and investors typically buy it in volatile times.
- Equally gold performs well in a rate cutting environment or times when the USD weakens, as seen overnight.
- The day ahead for gold will ebb and flow on any new headlines on tariffs.
- Whilst no ‘new news’ came out of China, the surge in gold today can likely be partly to do with traders playing catch up post Lunar New Year holidays.
CHINA: Caixin PMI Services Decline for January.
- China’s PMI Services for January declined to 51.0, from 52.2; likely impacted by the earlier than usual Lunar New Year Holiday.
- This follows Monday’s release of the China PMI Manufacturing at 50.1.
- The overall PMI composite saw a decline to 51.1 for January from 51.4 prior.
- The PMI services result was the lowest reading since September and saw the employment component decline to 48.8 to mark the lowest contribution since April.
- Additionally, the prices charged component saw a decline versus the prior month.
- It is likely that this data release will be of little cause for concern due to the impact of the holidays.
SOUTH KOREA: Upside CPI Surprise Takes Pressure off BOK.
- Korea’s January CPI data surprised to the upside with both the year on year and month on month data beating expectations, and higher than December.
- Korea’s CPI YoY for January printed at +2.2%, up from +1.9% in December and ahead of market expectations of +2.1%.
- Korea’s CPI MoM for January was at +0.7%, up from +0.4% in December and ahead of market expectations of +0.5%.
- Transport, Housing/Utilities (energy) and recreation were saw the largest increases whilst health was the largest decliner.
- The Central Bank in Korea, the BOK meets on February 25 and has managed market expectations in terms of expecting a cut.
- Minutes from last month’s BOK meeting show voting members hold real concerns as to the weakening of the currency as the reason for the unexpected pause.
- Today’s data however may cause the BOK to pause again for February pending a better outcome for CPI.
South Korea CPI y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
INDONESIA: Solid 2024 With Stronger Domestic & Export Growth
Q4 Indonesian GDP was as expected rising 0.5% q/q and 5.0% y/y up from 4.9% in Q3 leaving 2024 up 5% in line with 2023. Bank Indonesia said in January that it expected 2024 growth to be “slightly below the midpoint of the 4.7-5.5% range” and for Q4 to be “slightly” below expectations due to lower domestic demand. It has cut rates 50bp this cycle and continues to support growth with macroprudential policies given its focus on the rupiah which has been weaker. This should continue in 2025 accompanied by more rate cuts.
- 2024 GDP was below the government’s 5.2% target, while new President Prabowo is aiming for growth to reach 8% during his term and has increased fiscal stimulus plans as a result.
- BI revised down its 2025 GDP range slightly in January to 4.7-5.5% from 4.8-5.6% because of weak private investment.
- Domestic demand slowed slightly in Q4 rising 4.9% y/y after 5.0% in Q3 driven by a slowdown in government consumption growth to 4.2% y/y from 4.6% y/y. Private consumption was slightly stronger at 5.0% y/y from 4.9%, the highest since Q3 2023 and in line with growth over the last three years. GFCF grew at 5.0% y/y after 5.1% in Q3.
- Export growth slowed to 7.6% y/y in Q4 after 9.1% but 2024 saw an improvement to 6.6% from 1.3% the previous year.
- USDIDR is off its Monday high of 16471 helped by BI intervention and market stabilisation following deals to delay US tariffs on Mexico and Canada. USDIDR is at 16309, which is slightly lower than January 15, the last BI decision, which should reassure BI.
Indonesia growth y/y%
PHILIPPINES: January CPI Sees Prices on the Move Again.
- The Philippines January CPI YoY printed at +2.9%, in line with December and marginally higher than expected.
- The Philippines January CPI MoM printed at +0.5%, marginally down from December’s print of 0.6%, and above expectations of 0.3%.
- January core prices were up 2.6% with prices in the capital the main driver.
- The Central Bank the BSP has inflation targets of 2-4% and whilst today’s print is within those targets, the signs are there that inflation is on the increase again with the fifth consecutive month of rises, since September’s low.
- The BSP was the first of the regional Central Banks to cut rates in 2024 and meets again on February 13.
Phiippines CPI y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
Philippines core CPI continues to run ahead of non-Japan Asia ex China, y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/Refinitiv
ASIA FX: USD/CNY Higher After LNY Break, Spot KRW & TWD Follow Firmer Yen
In North East Asia, FX trends have seen onshore USD/CNY spot re-open higher. The pair push above 7.2800 and hold above this level. Since Trump's inauguration highs in USD/CNY have been capped near 7.2900, so this will remain a near term upside focus point. The stronger USD/CNY open has helped bias USD/CNH higher, although this pair is only just back above 7.2900, so comfortably within recent ranges.
- The USD/CNY fixing was close to unchanged from pre LNY levels. The Caixin services PMI was weaker than forecast, continuing the soft run of PMI prints for Jan. The timing of LNY may be impacting, but China's growth challenges remain a focus point.
- Local equities bounced at the open but this was short lived, while HK equities have also weakened in terms of the aggregate indices. The market is digesting where US-China relations stand. Late on Tuesday Trump stated a call with Xi will happen at the right time, but that there was no rush. Today the US Postal Service suspended inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong (see this BBG link for more details).
- USD/KRW sits lower, last just under 1449, a won gain of close to 0.15%. Stronger yen gains, up almost 0.70, is providing an offset to KRW (against the weaker yuan levels). Earlier data on FX reserves and CPI hasn't shifted sentiment. The Kospi is up over 1.20%, so providing some support.
- USD/TWD is back under 32.90, amid broader USD weakness (and catch up from Tuesday's session). Again, the local equity gains are likely helping at the margin. For spot USD/TWD, we are still above late Jan lows just under 32.70.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 05/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | * |  FR | Industrial Production |
| 05/02/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** |  ES | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** |  IT | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** |  DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | IT | Retail Sales |
| 05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** |  GB | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI |
| 05/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | PPI |
| 05/02/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** |  US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 05/02/2025 | 1315/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** |  CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Treasury Quarterly Refunding |
| 05/02/2025 | 1400/1500 | EU | ECB's Lane at Euro area in 2025 event and Q&A | |
| 05/02/2025 | 1400/0900 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 05/02/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (final) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |
| 05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | housing vacancies |
| 05/02/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 05/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 05/02/2025 | 2000/1500 | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 06/02/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** |  AU | Trade Balance |
| 05/02/2025 | 0030/1930 | US | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | |
| 06/02/2025 | 0645/0745 | ** |  CH | Unemployment |
| 06/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 06/02/2025 | 0700/0800 |  SE | Flash CPI | |
| 06/02/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Retail Sales |
| 06/02/2025 | 1200/1200 | *** | GB | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 06/02/2025 | 1200/1200 | *** | GB | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 06/02/2025 | 1230/1230 | GB | BOE MPR press conference | |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity |