Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg/Refinitiv.
UK
POLITICS (POLITICO): “UK waits nervously for Trump to back Chagos Islands deal. U.S. president’s shake-up of the security apparatus has complicated scrutiny of controversial British deal over Diego Garcia military base.”
EU
EU/US (FT/BBG): "The European Commission is looking at using its “anti-coercion instrument” in any potential trade dispute with Washington, which would allow the EU to target US service industries such as Big Tech, the FT reports citing two officials with knowledge of the plans."
FRANCE (ECONOMIST): “On Wednesday the centrist François Bayrou faces a no-confidence vote, tabled by the hard left after the prime minister announced that he too would try to force his budget through parliament without a vote. But Mr Bayrou should survive. Crucially, the Socialist Party decided on Monday not to vote against him. The next day Jordan Bardella, president of the hard-right National Rally, hinted that his party might follow suit.”
AUSTRIA (POLITICO): “Talks to form a government that would put the far right in power in Austria are struggling, Austrian media reported Tuesday, though the parties involved say negotiations have not collapsed.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Trump must get “strong security guarantees” from Russia to end the war that’s been raging for nearly three years in Ukraine.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): “Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested Tuesday that Ukraine should be given nuclear weapons once the hot phase of the war with Russia is over. This could deter Russia from invading Ukraine again, if Ukraine's aim of attaining NATO membership when the war ends isn't achievable quickly.”
GREENLAND (DW): “Greenland's prime minister has proposed an election for March 11. The announcement came with Greenland's parliament mulling a ban on foreign political donations, with Donald Trump repeating his interest in the territory.”
TECH (POLITICO): “The EU’s tech fines are a “tariff” on U.S. companies and the bloc is going in the “wrong direction” with its tech regulation, Meta’s top lobbyist Joel Kaplan said Tuesday.”
US
MIDDLE EAST (RTRS): “President Donald Trump said the U.S. would take over the war-ravaged Gaza Strip and develop it economically after Palestinians are resettled elsewhere, moves that would shatter decades of U.S. policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.”
US/CHINA (WAPO): The U.S. Postal Service abruptly suspended inbound package shipments from China and Hong Kong on Tuesday as President Donald Trump's trade war began in earnest.
FED (MNI): Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Tuesday the current stance of monetary policy is well positioned to deal with both sides of the central bank's mandate, though he continues to expect a gradual reduction in interest rates toward a more neutral stance over the medium term.
BUSINESS (BBC): “Beauty firm Estée Lauder, owner of cosmetics brands Clinique, MAC, and Jo Malone, is shedding twice the number of jobs than planned, pointing to uncertainty around US President Donald Trump's tariffs as cause for concern. The American multinational was already restructuring the business to tackle its flagging performance, but now says job losses could reach 7,000.”
OTHER
JAPAN (MNI BRIEF): Inflation-adjusted real wages, a barometer of household purchasing power, posted their second straight monthly rise in December, up 0.6% against November's 0.5%, preliminary data released by the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare on Wednesday showed.
NEW ZEALAND (MNI BRIEF): The New Zealand unemployment rate rose 30 basis points to 5.1% over Q4, in line with market expectations and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s most recent forecast, Stats NZ data showed Wednesday.
CHINA
US/CHINA (BBG): “President Trump says he’ll speak to Chinese President Xi Jinping at the appropriate time.”
PMI SERVICES (MNI BRIEF): China’s Caixin Services PMI reached 51.0 in January, down 1.2 points from December but remained above the expansionary level of 50 for the 25th consecutive month, Caixin reported on Wednesday.
FENTANYL (GLOBAL.COM): “The U.S. should control fentanyl by addressing domestic loopholes and cooperating with many countries, including China, given the global nature of the issue, according to Ying Pinguang, professor at the School of International Organisations at Shanghai University.”
TRAVEL (SECURITIES DAILY): “China’s cross-regional people flow increased 7.2% y/y during the Spring Festival, setting a historical record, data from the Ministry of Transport showed.”
CHINA MARKETS
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY716.5 Bln via OMO Wednesday
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY697 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.50%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY716.5 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY1.4315 trillion 14-day reverse repos today, according to Wind Information.
- The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.7500% at 09:38 am local time from the close of 1.8629% before Chinese New Year holiday.
- The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 46 on the last trading day before Chinese New Year holiday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.
MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1693 Weds; -1.18% Y/Y
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1693 on Wednesday, compared with 7.1698 set before Chinese New Year holiday. The fixing was estimated at 7.2813 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
NEW ZEALAND Q4 JOBLESS RATE 5.1%; EST. 5.1%; PRIOR 4.8%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 EMPLOYMENT -0.1% Q/Q; EST. -0.2%; PRIOR -0.6%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 EMPLOYMENT -1.1% Y/Y; EST. -0.9%; PRIOR -0.6%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 NON-GOVT. ORDINARY TIME WAGES +0.6% Q/Q; EST. +0.6%; PRIOR +0.6%
NEW ZEALAND Q4 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS +1.3% Q/Q; PRIOR +1.2%
NEW ZEALAND JAN. ANZ COMMODITY PRICES +1.8% M/M; PRIOR +0.1%
AUSTRALIA JAN. F S&P GLOBAL PMI COMPOSITE 51.1; PRE 50.3; DEC. 50.2
AUSTRALIA JAN. F S&P GLOBAL PMI SERVICES 51.2; PRE 50.4; DEC. 50.8
CHINA JAN. CAIXIN SERVICES PMI 51.0; EST. 52.4; DEC. 52.2
CHINA JAN. CAIXIN COMPOSITE PMI 51.1; DEC. 51.4
SOUTH KOREA JAN. CONSUMER PRICES +2.2% Y/Y; EST. +2.1%; PRIOR +1.9%
SOUTH KOREA JAN. CONSUMER PRICES +0.7% M/M; EST. +0.5%; PRIOR +0.4%
SOUTH KOREA JAN. CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY +1.9% Y/Y; EST. +1.8%; PRIOR +1.8%
SOUTH KOREA FOREIGN RESERVES JAN. $411.01B; PRIOR $415.60B
JAPAN LABOUR CASH EARNINGS DEC. +4.8% Y/Y; EST. +3.7%; PRIOR +3.9%
JAPAN REAL CASH EARNINGS DEC. +0.6% Y/Y; EST. -0.1%; PRIOR +0.5%
JAPAN CASH EARNINGS SAME SAMPLE DEC. +5.2% Y/Y; EST. +3.6%; PRIOR +3.7%
JAPAN SCHEDULED FULL TIME PAY DEC. +2.8% Y/Y; EST. +2.8%; PRIOR +2.7%
JAPAN JIBUN BANK JAN. SERVICES PMI 53.0; PRE. 52.7; DEC. 50.9
JAPAN JIBUN BANK JAN. COMPOSITE PMI 51.1; PRE. 51.1; DEC. 50.5
MARKETS
US TSYS: Tsys Futures Pare Morning Losses, 10yr Yield at 4.50%
- Tsys futures were slightly lower in morning trading, however has since pared losses to trade little changed. TU is -00¼ at 102-26⅞, while TY is unchanged at 109-06+.
- Treasury futures continue to trade below their recent highs. A corrective cycle remains in play and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. TY key resistance at 109-10, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bullish theme and open 109-31, the Dec 18 high. The medium-term trend condition remains bearish. The bear trigger is 107-06, the Jan 13 low. Initial firm support is 108-06, the Jan 23 low.
- Cash tsys yields initially traded 1-2bps higher this morning, however has since reversed those moves with yields now flat to 0.5bps lower. The 2yr is unch at 4.214%, while the 10yr is -0.4bps at 4.507%, the 10yr has traded in a roughly 10bps range for the past two weeks now, while the 2s10s has flattened about 4bps over the same period.
- US Postal Service is stopping inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong in potentially another sign of worsening trade tensions between Beijing and Washington.
JGBS: Cheaper, BoJ Masaki Talks On Policy, BoJ Tamura Tomorrow
JGB futures are hovering near session lows, -14 compared to the settlement levels.
- The BoJ will raise its benchmark interest rate if its inflation outlook for price trend to rise toward 2% is realised, according to Kazuhiro Masaki, the head of the policy department at the central bank. (per BBG)
- Inflation-adjusted real wages, a barometer of household purchasing power, posted their second straight monthly rise in December, up 0.6% against November's 0.5%.
- Cash US tsys are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest rally. Focus in the US turns to today’s ADP private employment data ahead of Friday's headline NFP data for January, not to mention the US Tsy quarterly refunding announcement, S&P Global US Services PMI and ISM Services data.
- Cash JGBs are flat to 2bps cheaper across benchmarks, with a flattening bias. The benchmark 10-year yield is 1.3bps higher at 1.292% versus the fresh cycle high of 1.301% set earlier today.
- Swap rates are flat to 2bps higher. Swap spreads are mixed.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Weekly International Investment Flow and Tokyo Avg Office Vacancies data alongside 30-year supply. BoJ Board Member Tamura will also give a speech in Nagano.
AUSSIE BONDS: Richer & At Bests Ahead Of US ADP Data & ISM Services
ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +5.0) are richer and at Sydney session bests on a data light day.
- Outside of the previously outlined S&P Global PMIs, there hasn't been much by way of domestic drivers to flag.
- Cash US tsys are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest rally. Focus in the US turns to today’s ADP private employment data ahead of Friday's headline NFP data for January, not to mention the US Tsy quarterly refunding announcement, S&P Global US Services PMI and ISM Services data.
- Cash ACGBs are 2-5bps richer after being 2-4bps cheaper earlier. The AU-US 10-year yield differential is at -14bps versus -8bps early.
- The AOFM issued by syndication A$15.0bn of the new 4.25% Mar-36 bond at a YTM of 4.46%. A total of A$83.4bn was bid at the final clearing price.
- Swap rates are 3-5bps lower, with the 3s10s curve flatter.
- The bills strip slightly mixed.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly mixed across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced for April (134%), with the probability of a February cut at 90% (based on an effective cash rate of 4.34%).
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Trade Balance data.
BONDS: NZGBS: Closed Slightly Richer & At Bests But OIS Firmer
NZGBs closed at session bests, 1bp richer across benchmarks, after reversing weakness seen in the aftermath of this morning’s Q4 Labour Market data.
- The Q4 unemployment rate rose 0.3pp to 5.1%, in line with consensus and the RBNZ, to be its highest since the Covid-impacted Q3 2020. Employment fell 0.1% q/q to be down 1.1% y/y after -0.6% & -0.6% in Q3, which was revised lower.
- Wages growth continues to moderate and is either near 3% or under.
- Given the data printed close to the RBNZ’s November forecasts, which also suggested a 50bp rate cut in Q1 2025, another 50bp on February 19 remains likely.
- Swap rates closed 2-4bps higher, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed 1-5bps firmer across meetings. 49bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 126bps by November 2025.
- The local calendar is empty for the rest of the week.
- Tomorrow, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$225mn of the 4.50% Apr-27 bond, NZ$225mn of the 2.00% May-32 bond and NZ$50mn of the 2.75% May-51 bond.
FOREX: Yen To Multi Month Highs, Supported By Wages Data, Steady Elsewhere
Outside of yen gains, G10 FX trends have been very muted in Wednesday trade to date. The BBDXY index sits little changed and above 1300 in latest dealings, despite a 0.65% rise in the yen (returning China onshore markets with higher USD/CNY levels has likely provided some offset).
- Earlier we had a couple of support points for the yen. The labor cash earnings data was well above expectations, reinforcing positive wage trends as we progress through early 2025. Real wages have been back in positive y/y territory for two straight months. Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akazawa also stated that Japan is in a inflationary situation now. US-JP yield differentials continue to point to lower USD/JPY levels.
- Risk jitters also helped the yen. Headlines crossed of the US postal service cancelling packages from China and Hong Kong, which may be part of the recent tariff announcement by the US. This adds to uncertainty around US/China relations and weighed on China/HK aggregate equity indices.
- USD/JPY got to lows of 153.10, but sits slightly higher in latest dealings (153.35/40). This is close to Dec 18 lows from last year. A clean break sub 153.00 could see 152.55 targeted, a 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 10 bull leg.
- AUD and NZD haven't shifted much though. AUD/USD was last little changed near 0.6250, while NZD was up a touch to 0.5655. Earlier NZ jobs data showed spare capacity building in the labor market, although outcomes were close to market expectations.
- In the cross asset space, US equity futures hold weaker, down 0.40-0.50% for Eminis and Nasdaq futures, while US yields are close to unchanged.
- Looking ahead, the Fed’s Barkin, Goolsbee and Bowman appear and US January ADP employment, December trade and January services PMI/ISM print. Also the ECB’s Lane speaks and January European services/composite PMIs and euro area December PPI data are released.
ASIA STOCKS: China & Hong Kong Equities Lower On Trade Tensions
Chinese stocks opened higher but quickly turned lower as trade tensions weighed on sentiment. The CSI 300 Index fell 0.3%, led by declines in energy and utilities. Hong Kong stocks and Chinese e-commerce firms like JD.com dropped after the US Postal Service suspended inbound parcels from China and Hong Kong.
- Tungsten producers gained after Beijing announced export controls, and supermarket chain Pangdonglai saw a boost from strong Lunar New Year sales. Tech stocks, including the Star 50 Index, outperformed on AI optimism after DeepSeek’s new language model.
- Chinese software stocks, including Beijing Kingsoft Office, surged as traders returned from the holiday, driven by optimism over AI applications following DeepSeek’s release of a lower-cost large language model. In contrast, optical equipment makers declined amid concerns that reduced AI infrastructure spending could weigh on demand.
- Robotics-related stocks advanced after Unitree’s dancing robots gained attention during China’s Spring Festival Gala.
- Chinese Travel & Tourism stocks declined, with China Southern and Air China down ~4%, and Trip.com falling ~5%. However, regional tourism data was positive—Guangdong saw 80m visitors with ¥74b in tourism revenue (+7.5% YoY), Shanghai had 17.8m tourists (+6.1% YoY), and Beijing's retail sales from restaurants and stores hit ¥8.1b (+4.2% YoY).
- E-commerce & Logistics Hit by US Postal Suspension: Alibaba fell 2.1%, JD.com dropped 5.1%, and SF Holding declined as the US halted inbound parcels from China & Hong Kong, adding uncertainty to the sector.
- Elsewhere, China’s services activity slowed unexpectedly in January while maintaining its growth streak, according to the Caixin PMI, which fell to 51 from 52.2 (below the 52.4 forecast). The slowdown comes despite strong Lunar New Year demand, with firms citing market competition and trade uncertainties.
ASIA STOCKS: Asian Equities Mixed As Trade Tensions Weigh On Sentiment
Asian equities are mixed today as trade tensions weighed on sentiment, with US-China tariffs and US Postal Service suspending inbound parcels from China adding to uncertainty. Investors remain cautious amid signs of slowing Chinese services activity and a weakening yuan, though Goldman Sachs sees potential for a 14% rally in the MSCI China Index if Beijing delivers strong stimulus.
- Chinese stocks fell as investors returned from the Lunar New Year break, reacting to escalating US-China trade tensions. The CSI 300 dropped 0.6%, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index slumped 2%. Tech shares outperformed, led by AI software firms after DeepSeek’s release of a lower-cost large language model, though AI hardware stocks weakened on concerns about reduced infrastructure spending.
- Japanese stocks erased early gains as the yen strengthened on expectations of further BOJ rate hikes following strong wage data. The Nikkei is 0.20% lower after rising 0.8% earlier, while the Topix trade flat with banks like Mizuho and MUFG benefiting from rate hike speculation.
- In South Korea the Korea Development Bank announced plans to create a ₩34 trillion ($25.5b) tech fund to support sectors like batteries and biotech, pending parliamentary approval. The KOSPI is trading 1.20% higher today. Taiwan's TAIEX is 1.75% higher as TSMC trade 1.90% higher.
- Australia's ASX 200 rebounded 0.55% after Monday’s losses, tracking Wall Street gains. Mining stocks outperformed, with BHP, Fortescue, and Rio Tinto rising over 2%. Gold stocks also gained as the gold price hit a record $2,845/oz.
OIL: Crude Lower On Growth Concerns, But Less Iranian Supply In Background
Oil prices are moderately lower today due to a large rise in US crude inventories and rising global growth concerns from an increase in protectionism. Brent is down 0.4% to $75.87/bbl after a low of $75.77. It reached a high of $76.34 early in the session. WTI is 0.3% lower at $72.45/bbl after falling to $72.36 and an earlier high of $72.97. The USD index is down 0.1%.
- The sell off in oil has been muted following the new US administration’s policy to be tougher on Iran. Relaxed enforcement of sanctions allowed it to increase oil exports by around 1mbd over the last four years.
- Markets are more concerned about the overall impact on global growth from increased protectionism rather than China’s retaliation on US oil and gas. China’s crude imports are already less than 5% of the US total, according to Bloomberg, and are expected to easily find alternative destinations.
- Bloomberg reported that US crude inventories rose 5.025mn barrels last week, according to people familiar with the API data. There has been a sharp increase in flows from Canada to the US to beat the imposition of tariffs, which may continue given the delay is only 30 days. In terms of products, gasoline rose 5.426mn while distillate fell 7mn. The official EIA data are out later today.
- Later the Fed’s Barkin, Goolsbee and Bowman appear and US January ADP employment, December trade and January services PMI/ISM print. Also the ECB’s Lane speaks and January European services/composite PMIs and euro area December PPI data are released.
- Golds stellar start to 2025 continued today, with bullion hitting new all time highs.
- Having hit new highs yesterday, gold opened in Asia this morning at US$2842.71 and traded up for most of the day reaching a high of $2,858.17.
- China’s retaliation in the trade war yesterday came from Beijing yesterday when they announced tariffs on US energy imports, oil, agricultural equipment, announced key US companies were to be place on a blacklist and that Google were to be investigated for anti-trust violations.
- Whilst the tariff news was brushed off by many equity markets, the USD weakened, giving room for gold to rally.
- Gold enjoys ‘safe haven’ status as an asset, and investors typically buy it in volatile times.
- Equally gold performs well in a rate cutting environment or times when the USD weakens, as seen overnight.
- The day ahead for gold will ebb and flow on any new headlines on tariffs.
- Whilst no ‘new news’ came out of China, the surge in gold today can likely be partly to do with traders playing catch up post Lunar New Year holidays.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 05/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | * |  FR | Industrial Production |
| 05/02/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** |  ES | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0815/0915 | ** | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** |  IT | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0845/0945 | ** | IT | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0850/0950 | ** | FR | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** |  DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0855/0955 | ** | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | * | IT | Retail Sales |
| 05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** |  EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | ** | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** |  GB | S&P Global Services PMI (Final) |
| 05/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | *** | GB | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Composite PMI |
| 05/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | PPI |
| 05/02/2025 | 1200/0700 | ** |  US | MBA Weekly Applications Index |
| 05/02/2025 | 1315/0815 | *** | US | ADP Employment Report |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** |  CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | CA | International Merchandise Trade (Trade Balance) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Trade Balance |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Treasury Quarterly Refunding |
| 05/02/2025 | 1400/1500 | EU | ECB's Lane at Euro area in 2025 event and Q&A | |
| 05/02/2025 | 1400/0900 | US | Richmond Fed's Tom Barkin | |
| 05/02/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global Services Index (final) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1445/0945 | *** | US | S&P Global US Final Composite PMI |
| 05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | ISM Non-Manufacturing Index |
| 05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | housing vacancies |
| 05/02/2025 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | DOE Weekly Crude Oil Stocks |
| 05/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | US | Chicago Fed's Austan Goolsbee | |
| 05/02/2025 | 2000/1500 | US | Fed Governor Michelle Bowman | |
| 06/02/2025 | 0030/1130 | ** |  AU | Trade Balance |
| 05/02/2025 | 0030/1930 | US | Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson | |
| 06/02/2025 | 0645/0745 | ** |  CH | Unemployment |
| 06/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | ** | DE | Manufacturing Orders |
| 06/02/2025 | 0700/0800 |  SE | Flash CPI | |
| 06/02/2025 | 0830/0930 | ** | EU | S&P Global Final Eurozone Construction PMI |
| 06/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | ** | GB | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | ** | EU | Retail Sales |
| 06/02/2025 | 1200/1200 | *** | GB | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 06/02/2025 | 1200/1200 | *** | GB | Bank Of England Interest Rate |
| 06/02/2025 | 1230/1230 | GB | BOE MPR press conference | |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | *** | US | Jobless Claims |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | WASDE Weekly Import/Export |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | ** | US | Preliminary Non-Farm Productivity |