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Labour Report, November – 0830ET

  • Employment is seen rising 14k in November after October's 17.5k gain, with the full-time/part-time split watched after full-time disappointed with -3k.
  • The unemployment rate is watched closely and will again play a key role in shaping market reaction. Consensus sees another push higher to 5.8% after last month’s surprise lift, up from 5.0% in Mar/Apr.
  • Wage growth has been the most hawkish aspect of labour data, and is seen only dipping to 4.9% Y/Y (Bloomberg measure of permanent employees), for still very little progress.
  • Wage growth has been stubborn despite the trend higher in the u/e rate, with the BoC regularly noting the 4-5% range which it has held or slightly exceeded since mid-2022. Macklem in Q&A on Nov 22 said the Bank expects the adjustment to much better balance seen in the labour market to drive some deceleration in wage growth.
  • This is the last major data release ahead of Wednesday's BoC decision. Note though that labor productivity for Q3 lands at 0830ET, unlikely to shape the decision due at 1000ET but nevertheless an important release following a dire trend for productivity.

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