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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA DATA
- Released tomorrow at 0830ET, employment growth is expected to print 25k in October. It follows a particularly strong 64k in Sept driven by education and typical volatility around the start of the school year.
- Analysts sit between 10k and 35k although there is an outlier at 77k.
- Once again, it’ll be the overall impression of labour market tightness that ultimately guides the market reaction (outside of course heavy spillover from US payrolls landing at the same time).
- The unemployment rate is expected to increase another tenth to 5.6% as the still decent pace of employment growth doesn’t keep up with immigration-driven labour supply increases. It won’t take much though on a rounded basis, coming from 5.54% in September. It follows three months at 5.5% having been 5% as recently as April and a multi-decade low of 4.9% back in Jul’22.
- Wage growth will no doubt get close attention after continued explicit focus from the BoC. The multiple wage measures printed 5.0-5.3% Y/Y in September, with the highest of those (for permanent employees) expected to only ease a tenth to 5.2% Y/Y in the Bloomberg survey.
- They can occasionally see large swings on the month although averaged around the 5% mark through Q3, at the top end of the “elevated” 4-5% range the BoC has flagged.
- Looking ahead, CIBC think “employment growth will likely remain weaker than the growth rate of the population throughout the remainder of this year and into 2024 as well, seeing the unemployment rate peak in excess of 6%”, opening the door for the BoC to “start gradually lowering rates by Q2 next year”.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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