UK
The main opposition centre-left Labour party remains in a strong position to win an overall majority at the next general election. This is in spite of speculation over recent days that a hung parliament, with no party holding an overall majority, could be in the offing at the next general election. This comes largely on the back of the release of a so-called 'national estimated vote' share, based on the results of the 2 May local elections extrapolated across the entire UK.
- Under this estimate, Labour would recieve 35% of the vote, with PM Rishi Sunak's centre-right Conservatives on 26%, the centre-left Liberal Democrats on 16%, with other parties on a toal of 22%. Converted into a seat projection for the House of Commons, it has Labour as the largest party on 294 seats, short of the 326 required for an overall majority.
- However, there are a number of issues with the NEV that bear thinking of. The NEV did not take into account voting for nationalist parties in Scotland and Wales, where no local elections took place, as well as Northern Ireland with its separate political party environment.
- Perhaps most importantly, it is estimated that around one-in-five voters cast ballots for a different party in local elections than in generals. This tends to boost the Liberal Democrats (projected on 16% here but polling ~10% nationally), the Greens, and independents, while Labour tends to underperform at the local level.
- Betting markets continue to price in a Labour majority, with an 87% implied probability according to Smarkets, with a hung parliament on 11% and a 3% probability of a Conservative majority.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of General Election Outcome, %
Source: Smarkets
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