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Free AccessLacking Real Conviction, USD/CNH Sees Fresh YtD Lows
The bid evident in e-minis is seemingly limiting the USD in early trade this week, with the JPY chopping around, as focus continues to fall on Japanese PM Abe's successor. It is worth re-flagging a Nikkei press report which pointed to the LDP's powerful factions starting to throw support behind Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, Abe's right-hand man.
- NOK is leading the charge among G10 FX in the early goings this week, although conditions for that currency are particularly thin during Asia-Pac hours.• Official Chinese PMI data provided little fresh information surrounding the health of the Chinese economy on net, while Sino-Aussie tensions limited the early risk-based uptick in AUD/USD.
- Various GBP negative headlines crossed over the weekend, with a focus on the traditional pre-budget test kites, which pointed to a fairly sharp round of tax hikes that many worry will derail the economy. There were also articles pointing to greater fiscal support for the railways and London's retail district. Elsewhere, the latest Opinium/Observer poll has the ruling Tory party neck and neck with Labour for the first time in a long time, which represents the surrender of a 20+ point lead for the former in that particular polling series. Brexit worry also continues to simmer on both sides of the Channel. The observance of the UK's bank holiday Monday may limit accurate transmission of the weekend news flow into GBP pricing.
- Weaker USD dynamics linger in the USD/CNH cross early this week, with the rate looking through CNH6.8500, resulting in fresh YtD lows in the process. The latest evolution of the Sino-U.S. tensions hasn't hampered the yuan as of yet, with some arguing that it will take a significant hit to Chinese capital flows or a stronger round of polling for U.S. President Trump re: the upcoming Presidential election for such matters to really factor into yuan valuations. USD/CNH's next level of support is seen at the 38.2% retracement of the move from the 2018 low to the 2019 high, which lies at CNH6.8296.
- Preliminary state and national German CPI data and an address from Fed Vice Chair Clarida headline on Monday.
- Month-end models point to USD selling, although the aforementioned London holiday may have front-loaded at least a portion of the re-balancing flow.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.