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Lagarde Expects November to be a Particularly Negative Month

ECB

Question: Estimate for Q4 GDP is 3.1%, is that too optimistic and is there a risk of negative growth in Q4? Notes mention of prospect of vaccine, how contingent is further loosening on this?

- A: Number for Q3 out tomorrow and might surprise on update. Pretty confident number for Q4 will be on the downside because month of November to be very negative and will reflect slow process economies will go under and slower momentum ever since Sep - services, cons confidence, PMI order, PMI employment have all slowed since Sep. Will Q4 be negative? Don't know at this point. Will depend on infection rates etc and don't know how much Dec will rebound.

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