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Lagarde: Growth Risks To The Downside; Wages/Profits Upside Inflation Risks

ECB

Lagarde's opening comments conclude with a discussion of the risks to the outlook:

  • Risks to growth remain tilted to the downside. Growth could be lower if monetary policy impacts are stronger than expected, a weaker world economy or a further slowdown in international trade. Russia’s war against Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East are key sources of geopolitical risk which could impact confidence among firms and households.
  • Growth could be higher if rising incomes raise spending by more than anticipated or the world economy grows more than expected.
  • Upside risks to inflation include heightened geopolitical tensions and extreme weather events that could drive up food inflation. Inflation could move higher if inflation expectations move above target or wages and profit margins increase by more than expected.
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