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Lagarde offers a measured assessment of the economic outlook:
- The economy rebounded in Q2 and is on track for strong growth in the third quarter. Even with supply bottlenecks, manufacturing is expected to rebound strongly. Services similarly rebounded sharply, but could be especially affected by the delta variant.
- Economic output is expected to return to the pre-crisis level by the first quarter of 2022. The number of people in job retention schemes is declining, but remains high.
- She notes that the risk outlook is "broadly balanced" (MNI notes there was a risk this language could have been revised).
- The recovery still depends on favourable financing conditions. Borrowing rates for households and firms remain at favourable levels. Firms are still well funded. Lending to households is holding up well. The most recent Bank Lending Survey shows that credit conditions for households and firms has stabilised. Liquidity remains abundant.
- Q&A Begins.