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Lagarde Worried About Seeming Dovish, But Today Looked A Hawkish Pivot

ECB

Press conference is over, but not before Lagarde makes 50bp at each of the next 2 and possibly 3 meetings, and a policy rate peak >3%, the base case.

  • Oddly she even sounded like she was worried the market would interpret the decision to step down the pace from 75bp to 50bp dovishly, being emphatic that the ECB was "not pivoting".
  • Au contraire - this did seem like a pivot, but in a hawkish direction.
  • Peak rate pricing for mid-2023 is up 20bp, 3.07% for July, with just under 100bp priced for the next 2 meetings in Feb and Mar, with 120bp through the May meeting.
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