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Free AccessUSD/CNH Back Above 6.7000, Rupee Weakens To Record Lows
Most USD/Asia pairs are higher, due to weaker equities and a stronger USD against the majors. USD/CNH is back above 6.7000, but remains within recent ranges. Domestic covid cases are trending higher in Shanghai. USD/KRW is back above 1300, while the rupee has weakened to fresh record lows. PHP and IDR have seen modest outperformance, while THB is higher on BoT policy rhetoric.
- CNH: USD/CNH has moved up firmly today, +0.3% on closing levels from last week to the high 6.7000 region. We remain well within recent ranges though. Part of this is broader USD strength, but fresh Covid concerns on rising cases numbers in Shanghai and tech equity led weakness have also weighed. Higher USD/JPY levels (through 137.00) have likely added to CNH weakness at the margin.
- KRW: USD/KRW started the session lower but that proved to be short lived. The pair is back above 1301 at the time of writing. Local equities couldn't hold gains, while offshore investors have sold nearly $123mn in local stocks.
- INR: USD/INR is pushing higher to fresh record highs close to 79.40. RBI board member Bhida stated that larger rate hikes may be needed to cool inflation. Also, a weaker rupee is preventing feed through of lower commodity prices into domestic inflation pressures. Note over the weekend RBI Governor Das stated that inflation pressures are expected to cool from October.
- IDR: Spot USD/IDR has shed 13 figs and last deals at IDR14,964 as the rupiah shows resilience in the face of general greenback strength. Indonesia's 5-Year CDS premium (one of the rupiah stability indicators watched by Bank Indonesia) extends its pullback from a two-year high printed just above 150bps last Thursday. Also, worth flagging that Indonesia will tighten COVID-19 rules from next week. Domestic travellers who have not received their booster jabs will be required to present a negative pre-departure test.
- PHP: USD/PHP is unchanged on the day, just under 55.94. There appears to be some near term resistance above 56.00 in the pair. Note the Philippines' Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) expects USD/PHP to be within the PHP51-55 from 2023 through the end of President Marcos' term in 2028. The FX forecast for this year was kept unchanged at PHP51-53. Domestic data highlights this week include monthly trade report, due for release tomorrow.
- THB: Spot USD/THB is weaker on the day, sub 36.00, bucking the stronger USD trend. The BoT Governor stated that monetary policy has been very accommodative and stimulus needs to be withdrawn gradually. The BoT MPC is also putting more emphasis on rising inflation pressures (as opposed to the growth backdrop). Such commentary raises the prospect of an August lift off for the BoT.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.