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NEA Underperforms SEA in the FX space

ASIA FX

North East Asia currencies have underperformed the South East Asia/INR FX bloc today. Tempering Fed expectations are one driver, although disappointment from the China Politburo meeting, around stimulus measures, has likely been a factor as well. These moves come despite a sharp drop in USD/JPY today as well, which has seen less spill over to the region compared to yesterday.

  • CNH: The CNH has underperformed broader USD weakness today. Disappointment around lack of fresh stimulus measures following the Politburo meeting has left onshore equities underperforming. This has likely weighed at the margin. USD/CNH is back close to 6.7500, while the DXY is off by 0.40% at this stage.
  • KRW: USD/KRW has pushed higher through the session, unable to test below 1295 (around the overnight low). Unlike yesterday, there is less positive spill over from the stronger yen today. The pair last tracked at 1300 in terms of the 1 month NDF. Onshore equities have lost ground as the session progressed, but remain in positive territory for now (last +0.408%).
  • INR: The rupee is up by a little over 0.4% at this stage. While not a large move, it is a decent bounce for the underperforming INR. USD/INR last changed hands at 79.43. Onshore equities are firmer in early trade today as well.
  • IDR: USD/IDR has continued to fall sharply today, off a further 82.5 figs to 14850 last. Lower US real yields/scaling back of tightening Fed expectations is helping. Palm oil futures gained in Thursday's after-hours trade, finishing +MYR87/MT at MYR4,044/MT. Indonesia's shipments will continue to attract attention, with the nation trying to boost exports and drain overflowing storage tanks.
  • PHP: The Peso has rallied more than 1% today, continuing the recent volatile trend. We were last at 55.21 fresh lows back to early July, on track to end the week lower in USD/PHP terms. Local equities are lower today (-1%), but this follows yesterday's +2.3% gain. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will keep tightening policy to prop up the beleaguered peso and curb inflation, Governor Medalla said Thursday, adding that the trajectory of rate hikes will be determined by data.

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