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Large Rebuilding Of Fed Cuts Post Payrolls

STIR
  • The payrolls report has made very little impact on September FOMC pricing (+4bp, -0.5bp since the release) but increasingly weighs further out with the overnight trimming of 2024 cuts easily more than reversed in a move that continues more than an hour after the data.
  • Cumulative hikes from 5.33% effective: +4bp in Sep (-0.5bp since NFP), 8bp in Nov to 5.41% terminal (-2bp)
  • Cuts from Nov terminal: 4bp to Dec’23 (from 3bp), 63bp to Jun’24 (from 53bp) and 131bp to Dec’24 (from 119bp). If it closed now, those 2024 cuts would be the largest close since the Jul 26 FOMC decision.

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