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LarrainVial Forecast CLP Strengthening Into Year-End On Seasonal Factors

CHILE
  • According to LarrainVial economists, the Chilean peso is set to appreciate, closing the year at 850/USD or even stronger on seasonal factors. However, they then see CLP pressures re-asserting themselves in 2024, and USDCLP trading between 900-1,000 in reaction to the ongoing easing by the BCCh and the narrowing differentials with the US.
  • LarrainVial expect the key rate to reach 5% by year-end 2024, depending on the Fed signalling the start of rate cuts in May or June 2024. On growth, they forecast a stagnant economy this year and returning to growth of 1.5% in 2024.
  • On the upcoming referendum, they believe the most likely outcome will be the rejection of the constitutional council’s proposal, but expect the pension reform to pass.
  • See universal guaranteed pension eroding fiscal discipline in the medium term, estimating its cost will rise by 3% of GDP over 30 years due to lack of long-term funding. (BBG)
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