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LarrainVial See CLP Weakening to 950-1000/USD in 6 Months

CHILE

Bloomberg have reported that LarrainVial say the Chilean Peso should continue to depreciate to 950-1000 per dollar in the next six months, LarrainVial head of research said in a note.

  • As long as depreciation is due to external factors, the central bank should refrain from intervening, especially given Chile’s need to narrow the current account deficit
  • The central bank will raise rates faster to induce a quicker decline in “stubbornly vigorous” domestic demand. MPR to rise to 10% from 9% at July meeting.
  • GDP to grow 1.5% in 2022 and contract 1% in 2023
  • Inflation to reach 15% y/y by Sept. 2022. LarrainVial doesn’t see larger pass-through as GDP should start to fall in 2H 2022
  • The yield of nominal BTP 2030 bonds should drop below 6% amid slowdown.
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