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Last CPI Print Before Dec BoC – 0830ET

CANADA
  • Today’s CPI print comes with the market undecided between a 25bp vs 50bp hike.
  • Consensus has headline holding at 6.9% Y/Y but with a particularly wide range of 6.3-7.4% Y/Y. CIBC's 7.2% reflects an increase in pump prices.
  • We continue to focus on trim and median CPI measures after the moderation from the summer peak of 5.2% paused at 4.95% Y/Y in Aug-Sep plus a more traditional core of CPI ex food & energy.
  • The BoC showed a chart of 3-month growth rates for the trim, median and common measures in the Oct MPR but we’re not aware of plans to publish those yet.
  • In absence of those monthly rates, we focus on CPI ex food & energy, which firmed back to 0.4% M/M in Sep, off peaks from earlier in the year but still far above a rate consistent with the 2% target.

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