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LATAM: Summary – September 17

LATAM
EM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • The Latam data calendar is light today, with just Brazil formal job creation possibly crossing later ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC and Copom meetings. As noted, consensus points to a 25bp Selic rate hike to 10.75% tomorrow on the back of de-anchored inflation expectations, robust growth and pressure on the exchange rate this year.
  • Elsewhere, Canada inflation data and US retail sales headline the economic calendar for the remainder of the session. US headline retail sales are seen falling by 0.2% m/m in August, following a 1.0% gain in July, while core sales (ex autos and gas) are expected to rise by 0.3%.
  • USD - The greenback has resumed its weakening trend on Tuesday and the USD index is testing the week’s lows as we approach the NY crossover. The ongoing tilt towards a 50bp FOMC cut is weighing and despite the contained ranges across G10, the DXY is hovering just above 100.60, close to its lowest level since July 2023.
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  • The Latam data calendar is light today, with just Brazil formal job creation possibly crossing later ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC and Copom meetings. As noted, consensus points to a 25bp Selic rate hike to 10.75% tomorrow on the back of de-anchored inflation expectations, robust growth and pressure on the exchange rate this year.
  • Elsewhere, Canada inflation data and US retail sales headline the economic calendar for the remainder of the session. US headline retail sales are seen falling by 0.2% m/m in August, following a 1.0% gain in July, while core sales (ex autos and gas) are expected to rise by 0.3%.
  • USD - The greenback has resumed its weakening trend on Tuesday and the USD index is testing the week’s lows as we approach the NY crossover. The ongoing tilt towards a 50bp FOMC cut is weighing and despite the contained ranges across G10, the DXY is hovering just above 100.60, close to its lowest level since July 2023.