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Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup

US TSYS

Option desks reported better low delta call trade in SOFR and Treasury options Wednesday, as underlying futures rebounded in late trade. No surprises following the September FOMC minute release (majority saw one hike, keeping rates higher for longer), while the nomination of Scalise to replace McCarthy as House speaker appeared to improve risk sentiment somewhat.

  • Safe haven bid as Lebanon/Israel exchanged rocket fire in addition to mildly dovish Fed speak from Gov Bowman overnight helped push TYZ3 back to late September levels (108-11 high, +20), the contract +87 at 107-31 in late trade. Rally has in turn tempered rate hike projections into early 2024: November at 9.8% compared to 30.5% late Fri, w/ implied rate change of +2.5bp to 5.353%, December cumulative of 7.4bp at 5.403%, January 2024 6.4bp at 5.392%. Fed terminal at 5.405% in Jan'24.
  • Link to Wednesday's:option summary
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