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Latest Developments In Labor Indicators Ahead Of Payrolls

US DATA

A summary graphic of latest developments across a variety of labor indicators since last month's payrolls report. Developments have been mixed:

  • Surprise strength in initial claims, Conference Board labor differential and JOLTS job openings, with the latter seeing the openings-to-unemployed ratio pushing back closer to cycle highs.
  • Little change in the ISM manufacturing employment index (services releases after tomorrow's payrolls report)
  • Surprise weakness in ADP and importantly ECI (0.97% Q/Q in Q4 vs cons 1.1 from 1.25% in Q3), plus also a renewed surge in Challenger job cuts


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