Latest MRP Poll Has Labour On Course For Substantial Majority In Next Election

The latest Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP) analysis carried out by Focaldatafor the anti-Brexit/internationalist civil society group Best for Britain shows the main opposition centre-left Labour Party on course to win a sizable 140-seat majority in the next general election (seen by observers as most likely in autumn 2024).

• The MRP analysis, carried out on 10,140 respondents, shows a number of various scenarios dependent on which parties run in the election. The base-case scenario, with the right-wing populist Reform Party running, has Labour winning 470 seats to PM Rishi Sunak's centre-right Conservatives on 129 seats. This MRP is the first carried out based on the new constituency boundaries coming in at the next election.
• The MRP shows that if Reform stood aside the split would shift to a 401-201 advantage for Labour, still a significant majority for Sir Keir Starmer's party. Even in the 'worst-case' scenario for Labour in which Reform stand aside and undecided voters swing heavily behind Sunak's party, it would still lead the Conservatives by 316 seats to 286 meaning a hung parliament.
• In policy terms polls such as these can prove influential. With the Conservatives trailing in polls, it could see the gov't look to cut the tax burden on UK households or boost public spending 2024 in an effort to bolster support ahead of the election, in turn impacting on the UK fiscal outlook.