Latest Polling Shows Conservatives Gaining On Trudeau's Liberals

The two latest opinion polls out of Canada ahead of the country's 20 September federal election both show Erin O'Toole's centre-right Conservatives narrowing the gap on Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's centre-left Liberals.

• EKOS poll: Liberal (LPC): 33% (-1), Conservative (CPC): 32% (+1), New Democratic Party (NDP): 20% (-1), Bloc Quebecois (BQ): 6% (+1), Greens: 5% (+1), People's Party (PPC): 4% (-). (+/- vs. 14-16 August 2021). Fieldwork: 15-18 August '21. Sample size: 1,281
• Counsel poll: LPC: 30% (-2), CPC: 29% (+1), NDP: 22% (+4), BQ: 8% (-), Greens: 5% (-2), PPC: 4% (-). (+/- vs. June 2021). Fieldwork: 16-18 August '21. Sample size: 3,499
• 338Canada.com's federal election simulator (which provides a projection of the make-up of the House of Commons based on party vote shares) shows that if the EKOS poll were mirrored in the election the Liberals would hold 143 seats (down from 155 presently), Conservatives on 132 (up from 119), NDP 38 (+14), BQ 23 (-9), Greens 2 (=).
• The Counsel poll, if reflected in an election, would deliver the Conservatives a plurality with 129 seats, the Liberals on 104, NDP 56, BQ 46, Greens 3 and People's Party 1 seat.