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The latest @europeelects seat projection for EurActiv shows that based on recent polling, the SPD would emerge as the largest single party in the Bundestag, with the CDU/CSU in a distant second place, and the Greens in third.

  • Total: 739 (+30): SPD-S&D: 210 (+57), CDU-EPP: 131 (-69), GRÜNE-G/EFA: 127 (+60), FDP-RE: 91 (+11), AfD-ID: 90 (-4), LINKE-LEFT: 51 (-18), CSU-EPP: 39 (-7). +/- vs. 2017 election
  • Should the final result reflect this projection the following coalition gov'ts would be possible: 'Grand Coalition' (SPD-CDU/CSU), Traffic light coalition (SPD-Greens-FDP), Jamaica coalition (CDU/CSU-Greens-FDP), Germany coalition (SPD-CDU/CSU-FDP), Kenya coalition (SPD-Greens-CDU/CSU).
  • Red-green (SPD-Green), black-green (CDU/CSU-Green), or 'R2G' red-red-green (SPD-Green-Die Linke) coalitions would all fall short of an overall majority.
Chart 1. Europe Elects for EurActiv Bundestag Seat Projection

Source: @europeelects