Free Trial

Latest Rally Retraced But Still Five Fed Cuts In 2024

  • Fed Funds implied rates have reversed yesterday’s rally that began early on before it continued with lower-than-expected JOLTS job openings.
  • It still implies sizeable probability of a March cut (17bp cumulative), fully prices two cuts by June and just about five cuts for 2024 as a whole – see table.
  • The ADP employment report at 0815ET could generate some noise but finalized nonfarm productivity/ULCs should have greater impact from a trend perspective, with analysts expecting an even stronger than first thought productivity increase of 4.9% annualized in Q3 after last week’s GDP revision.

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.