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Latest Rally Retraced But Still Five Fed Cuts In 2024

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have reversed yesterday’s rally that began early on before it continued with lower-than-expected JOLTS job openings.
  • It still implies sizeable probability of a March cut (17bp cumulative), fully prices two cuts by June and just about five cuts for 2024 as a whole – see table.
  • The ADP employment report at 0815ET could generate some noise but finalized nonfarm productivity/ULCs should have greater impact from a trend perspective, with analysts expecting an even stronger than first thought productivity increase of 4.9% annualized in Q3 after last week’s GDP revision.

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