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LATIN AMERICA: Ecuador - JP Morgan Base Case Remains a Noboa Victory

LATIN AMERICA
EM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • JP Morgan have noted that after prolonged uncertainty, the Contentious Electoral Tribunal (TCE) finally disqualified Jan Topic’s candidacy for the upcoming February 9 presidential elections. The ruling came after two parties issued a claim for alleged conflict of interests.
  • A prompt resolution of the electricity emergency remains key for President Noboa to prevent further erosion of political capital ahead of the elections. JPM’s base case remains for a Noboa win in the upcoming vote.
  • Overall, despite fiscal pressures arising from the electricity emergency, JPM continue to see IMF program compliance in 2024. All quantitative performance criteria and all except one (i.e., stock of arrears) indicative targets have been met by August-end 2024, which would trigger a US$500mn disbursement upon first review completion soon.
  • Moreover, the government is also on track to comply with the fiscal targets for full-year 2024 in JPM’s estimates, with another US$420mn scheduled for mid-March 2025 if end-December 2024 performance criteria are met.
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  • JP Morgan have noted that after prolonged uncertainty, the Contentious Electoral Tribunal (TCE) finally disqualified Jan Topic’s candidacy for the upcoming February 9 presidential elections. The ruling came after two parties issued a claim for alleged conflict of interests.
  • A prompt resolution of the electricity emergency remains key for President Noboa to prevent further erosion of political capital ahead of the elections. JPM’s base case remains for a Noboa win in the upcoming vote.
  • Overall, despite fiscal pressures arising from the electricity emergency, JPM continue to see IMF program compliance in 2024. All quantitative performance criteria and all except one (i.e., stock of arrears) indicative targets have been met by August-end 2024, which would trigger a US$500mn disbursement upon first review completion soon.
  • Moreover, the government is also on track to comply with the fiscal targets for full-year 2024 in JPM’s estimates, with another US$420mn scheduled for mid-March 2025 if end-December 2024 performance criteria are met.