LDP-Komeito Fail To Win Majority In Tokyo Assembly In Setback To PM Suga

Japan's ruling coalition gained seats in the Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly after Sunday's election, but failed to secure an outright majority, in an important political setback for PM Suga. The election has garnered much attention, with many seeing it as an important gauge of voter sentiment ahead of the general election, due to take place this autumn. Pre-election polling suggested that LDP-Komeito were set to win a majority of seats (albeit we flagged a large proportion of undecided respondents), while Asahi reminded that PM Suga himself described the poll as a "weighty one that has direct implications for an election at the national level."

• Taimei Yamaguchi, the LDP's election strategy czar, conceded the coalition's failure to win a majority of seats and pledged that the LDP will reflect on its mistakes ahead of the upcoming general election. Yamaguchi suggested that Tokyoites First "garnered a lot of sympathy votes," linked to Gov Koike's hospitalisation due to several fatigue just days before the Tokyo election, while Komeito leaders voiced a similar view.
• Gov Koike was released from hospital just in time to engage in last minute campaigning for Tokyoites First, a party she founded in 2017. While the regional party lost its leading position in the Assembly, they fared better than anticipated. The confirmation of a couple of positive Covid-19 cases among foreign Olympic athletes on the election day likely provided another headwind for LDP-Komeito, as the Olympics and Covid-19 dominated the electoral campaign.
• Opposition CDPJ and JCP also gained seats after striking a deal not to contest the same constituencies. Leaders of both parties signalled their willingness to intensify cooperation in the nationwide electoral campaign.
• The prestigious Tokyo poll provided an opportunity for PM Suga to turn the tide after three losses in parliamentary by-elections and a slide in his approval ratings, amid mounting criticism on the government's policies on Covid-19 and the Olympic Games. While the LDP is all but certain to re-emerge as the largest parliamentary party in autumn, a failure to regain control of the Tokyo assembly will provide another challenge to Suga, who will face scrutiny in an LDP leadership contest in September.
• Some have speculated that a disappointing showing in the Tokyo poll will prompt LDP-Komeito to facilitate works on a stimulus package and a sizeable extra budget this summer. Furthermore, the election has increased the political significance of successfully holding the Olympic Games, likely Suga's last chance to save his leadership after an unpopular decision to go ahead with the event, despite a worrying Covid-19 situation in Tokyo.

Fig. 1: Japan 2021 vs. 2017 Tokyo Metropolitan Elections

Source: MNI - Market News/NHK