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Le Pen Narrows Gap With Macron In Run-Off Polling

FRANCE

Latest hypothetical second round presidential election opinion polling from Ifop-Fiducial shows right-wing nationalist Rassembelement National leader Marine Le Pen as well as far-left La France Insoumise candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon making gains on incumbent President Emmanuel Macron. The 46.5% support recorded by Le Pen is the highest for her in any poll since October 2021.

  • Ifop-Fiducial poll: Presidential run-off election, +/- vs. 15-18 March. Fieldwork: 22-25 March 2022. Sample size: 1,504:
    • Macron (EC-RE): 53.5% (-3.5), Le Pen (RN-ID): 46.5% (+3.5)
    • Macron (EC-RE): 60% (-4), Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 40% (+4)
    • Given the sharp decline in support for Macron and rise for other candidates, confirming the trend over several polls is crucial to determine if this is an outlier or a sign of a notable change in support.
  • Macron has sought to put himself at the vanguard of European efforts to counter Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, polls show French voters more concerned about rising inflation and social security issues than foreign policy and security. This is exemplified in polls assessing how effective each candidate's campaign has been, with Macron sitting in third:
    • Ifop-Fiducial poll: 'Would you say the following candidates are running a good campaign?': Le Pen (RN-ID): 49% (+8), Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 43% (+8), Macron (EC-RE): 41% (+1). +/- vs. 8-11 March. Fieldwork: 22-25 March 2022. Sample size: 1,504

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