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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
STIR
- The Fed Funds implied terminal rate has unwound Friday’s hit from softer than expected U.Mich consumer inflation expectations and sentiment, lifting back to 5.45% for December. Continued increases further out mean that the market may not be sure on the additional hike for 2023 that the June dot plot pencilled in but it has come around to the 4.5-4.75% 2024 dot.
- Cumulative hikes: 0bp priced for Wednesday’s decision (unch from Fri close), 8bp for Nov (unch), 12bp for Dec terminal (+1.5bp) and closely followed by 11bp for Jan.
- Cuts from terminal: 27bp to Jun’24 and 88bp to 4.57% in Dec’24 – both at fresh recent lows – and with the first cut from the current effective of 5.33% seen in July. On a similar basis, the -87bps for SFRU3/Z4 continues to set fresh lows (in terms of cuts priced) since the initial fallout of regional banking woes in March and before that Oct’22.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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