September 18, 2023 10:26 GMT
Less Than 90bps of Fed Cuts Priced For 2024
- The Fed Funds implied terminal rate has unwound Friday’s hit from softer than expected U.Mich consumer inflation expectations and sentiment, lifting back to 5.45% for December. Continued increases further out mean that the market may not be sure on the additional hike for 2023 that the June dot plot pencilled in but it has come around to the 4.5-4.75% 2024 dot.
- Cumulative hikes: 0bp priced for Wednesday’s decision (unch from Fri close), 8bp for Nov (unch), 12bp for Dec terminal (+1.5bp) and closely followed by 11bp for Jan.
- Cuts from terminal: 27bp to Jun’24 and 88bp to 4.57% in Dec’24 – both at fresh recent lows – and with the first cut from the current effective of 5.33% seen in July. On a similar basis, the -87bps for SFRU3/Z4 continues to set fresh lows (in terms of cuts priced) since the initial fallout of regional banking woes in March and before that Oct’22.