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Lethargic Core Durable Goods In Amongst Noisy Categories

  • Durable goods orders saw a large miss in the preliminary October report, with values down -5.4% M/M (cons -3.2) after rising 4.0% (initial 4.4%) in September.
  • There were some very large moves within noisy components, with commercial aircraft bookings slumping -50% (partly expected as Boeing had reported 123 orders in Oct vs 224 in Sept) but defense capital goods jumping 24.5%.
  • As always, we put more weight on core orders, which also disappointed but more so via revisions – they dipped -0.1% M/M in Oct (cons +0.1%) after a downward revised -0.2% M/M (initial +0.5%).
  • Core shipments meanwhile, which feed into GDP calculations, look equally lethargic with 0.0% M/M (cons 0.1) after an upward revised 0.0% (initial -0.1%).
  • It leaves 3M/3m trend rates at 1.6% annualized for orders and 2.1% annualized for shipments.

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