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NORWAY: LFS Survey Signals Steady Labour Market Conditions

NORWAY
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The Norwegian seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment rate was 3.9% in January, down a touch from 4.0% in December. The LFS rate has fluctuated between 3.9 and 4.0% for the last seven months, after reaching a high of 4.2% in June 2024. As such, labour market conditions implied by the LFS remain steady on an aggregate basis. Norges Bank remain on track to deliver a 25bp cut on March 27.

  • The LFS unemployment rate Sahm rule (the difference between the current 3mma of the unemployment rate and its minimum value over the last twelve months) has fallen to zero from a high of 0.7pp in the middle of last year.
  • Employment growth was 1.3% M/M, fully unwinding December’s 1.2% fall, bringing the employment rate back to 70%.
  • Preliminary renumeration data points to a 6.0% Y/Y increase, but this is a very volatile series (light green line on the bottom chart) so should not be read into much. Focus remains on the outcome of this year’s union wage negotiations next month.
norway_lfs)_jan
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The Norwegian seasonally adjusted LFS unemployment rate was 3.9% in January, down a touch from 4.0% in December. The LFS rate has fluctuated between 3.9 and 4.0% for the last seven months, after reaching a high of 4.2% in June 2024. As such, labour market conditions implied by the LFS remain steady on an aggregate basis. Norges Bank remain on track to deliver a 25bp cut on March 27.

  • The LFS unemployment rate Sahm rule (the difference between the current 3mma of the unemployment rate and its minimum value over the last twelve months) has fallen to zero from a high of 0.7pp in the middle of last year.
  • Employment growth was 1.3% M/M, fully unwinding December’s 1.2% fall, bringing the employment rate back to 70%.
  • Preliminary renumeration data points to a 6.0% Y/Y increase, but this is a very volatile series (light green line on the bottom chart) so should not be read into much. Focus remains on the outcome of this year’s union wage negotiations next month.
norway_lfs)_jan