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Light Dovish Moves In EUR & GBP STIRs On European Data & Commodities

STIR
Bank Of England (BOE) Market NewsHomepageEuropean Central Bank (ECB) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

German & Spanish CPI data has supported core global FI markets, with downticks in benchmark crude oil and TTF prices also helping those moves.

  • That leaves Euribor futures a little firmer on the day, albeit a little shy of best levels.
  • Contracts last +1.5 to +3.5 through the blues.
  • ECB-dated OIS has moved in sync with 71.5bp of '24 cuts priced through '24 vs 68.5bp late Friday. Pricing of a June cut moves back towards 90% odds, with today's ECB-speak (from traditional hawks Muller & Wunsch) offering little new.
  • GBP STIRs have had little local news to go off, leaving the above drivers at the fore.
  • SONIA futures are flat to +3.0, while BoE-dated OIS shows ~45bp of '24 cuts vs. closer to 42bp late on Friday.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.687-22.0
Jul-243.591-31.6
Sep-243.413-49.4
Oct-243.332-57.6
Dec-243.192-71.5
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.203+0.3
Jun-245.111-8.9
Aug-244.988-21.2
Sep-244.920-28.0
Nov-244.818-38.2
Dec-244.748-45.2
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German & Spanish CPI data has supported core global FI markets, with downticks in benchmark crude oil and TTF prices also helping those moves.

  • That leaves Euribor futures a little firmer on the day, albeit a little shy of best levels.
  • Contracts last +1.5 to +3.5 through the blues.
  • ECB-dated OIS has moved in sync with 71.5bp of '24 cuts priced through '24 vs 68.5bp late Friday. Pricing of a June cut moves back towards 90% odds, with today's ECB-speak (from traditional hawks Muller & Wunsch) offering little new.
  • GBP STIRs have had little local news to go off, leaving the above drivers at the fore.
  • SONIA futures are flat to +3.0, while BoE-dated OIS shows ~45bp of '24 cuts vs. closer to 42bp late on Friday.
ECB Meeting€STR ECB-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp)
Jun-243.687-22.0
Jul-243.591-31.6
Sep-243.413-49.4
Oct-243.332-57.6
Dec-243.192-71.5
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
May-245.203+0.3
Jun-245.111-8.9
Aug-244.988-21.2
Sep-244.920-28.0
Nov-244.818-38.2
Dec-244.748-45.2