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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Get the latest on Central Bank Policy and FX & FI Markets to help inform both your strategic and tactical decision-making.
Free AccessLight Dovish Moves In EUR & GBP STIRs On European Data & Commodities
German & Spanish CPI data has supported core global FI markets, with downticks in benchmark crude oil and TTF prices also helping those moves.
- That leaves Euribor futures a little firmer on the day, albeit a little shy of best levels.
- Contracts last +1.5 to +3.5 through the blues.
- ECB-dated OIS has moved in sync with 71.5bp of '24 cuts priced through '24 vs 68.5bp late Friday. Pricing of a June cut moves back towards 90% odds, with today's ECB-speak (from traditional hawks Muller & Wunsch) offering little new.
- GBP STIRs have had little local news to go off, leaving the above drivers at the fore.
- SONIA futures are flat to +3.0, while BoE-dated OIS shows ~45bp of '24 cuts vs. closer to 42bp late on Friday.
ECB Meeting | €STR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective €STR Rate (bp) |
Jun-24 | 3.687 | -22.0 |
Jul-24 | 3.591 | -31.6 |
Sep-24 | 3.413 | -49.4 |
Oct-24 | 3.332 | -57.6 |
Dec-24 | 3.192 | -71.5 |
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
May-24 | 5.203 | +0.3 |
Jun-24 | 5.111 | -8.9 |
Aug-24 | 4.988 | -21.2 |
Sep-24 | 4.920 | -28.0 |
Nov-24 | 4.818 | -38.2 |
Dec-24 | 4.748 | -45.2 |
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.