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Limited Yen Gains From Higher Yields At This Stage

JPY

The yen is firmer against the dollar, but strength remains bounded at this stage. USD/JPY lows so far today came in at 140.70, with the pair back to 140.85/90 in recent dealings. This is still +0.20% strong in yen terms versus Friday NY closing levels. The focus remains on firmer yields, with government bond yields spiking above 0.60% for the 10yr, while the 2yr is back for the first time since January. The 10yr swap rate is at 0.78%, comfortably above Friday session highs, when the BoJ announced the YCC tweak.

  • These moves are driving lower US-JP swap rate differentials, with the 10yr back to +292bps. This is still above mid July lows near +280bps.
  • Earlier data showed slightly better than expected retails (+5.9% y/y, versus +5.4% forecast), while IP was slightly weaker than forecast, -0.4% y/y (+0.3% forecast).
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