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Free AccessLira Treads Water Ahead of Expected Pause on Rate Cuts from the CBRT
- USD/TRY trades +0.03% higher this morning, broadly in line with price action in the BBDXY.
- The CBRT is expected to keep rates on hold this week, bringing its easing cycle to an end at -500bp.
- Inflation remains the key issue at 36.08% y/y and is expected to rise to 40-50% in 2022 on delayed FX passthrough and recent credit boosting measures from government.
- Discussion on inflation will be monitored closely in the statement, but will likely still be deemed as transitory and due to supply-side factors.
- Demand for FX-linked deposits remains tepid, which may force govt to pursue more forceful measures similar to the 25% revenue conversion imposed on exporters in the coming months as Erdogan continues to avoid rate hikes.
- Widening negative real rates and a tightening external backdrop with almost 4 Fed hikes priced in should keep Turkish assets on the backfoot this year. USD/TRY remains in a wide range (13.20-13.9356) ahead of the meeting.
- A move through 13.682, should open up the prior Jan highs just shy of 14.00, while key support is defined at 13.20.
- Intraday Sup1: 13.4539, Sup2: 13.3113, Res1: 13.682, Res2: 13.749
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.