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US TSYS SUMMARY: Little activity in Tsys on Wednesday ahead of ISM data and, of
course, the FOMC meeting decision.
- With cash Tsys closed, key Asian markets and most of Europe out on holiday,
volume has been light (TYM just over 80k).
- Jun 10-Yr futures (TY) up 2/32 at 123-23.5 (L: 123-20.5 / H: 123-24).
- Curve fairly flat; 2-Yr yield is down 0.6bps at 2.26%, 5-Yr is down 0.7bps at
2.2716%, 10-Yr is down 0.7bps at 2.4945%, and 30-Yr is down 0.7bps at 2.9217%.
- Quiet in ED futures, up 0.5-1.0 ticks across most of the strip.
- Main event today is the Fed`s decision (1400ET) and Chair Powell`s press
conference (1430ET). No funds rate change expected but plenty to watch out for
including possible IOER adjustment and details on SOMA reinvestment.
- Our full preview: https://emedia.marketnews.com/Federal_Reserve_-_May_2019.pdf
- Our data team`s analysis of the MNI Chicago Business Barometer, plus other
regional US activity surveys, suggests that the national ISM release (1000ET)
could disappoint (55.3 prior, 55.3 est.)
- March construction numbers (1000ET) also of potential interest.