Little Apparent Support For 50bp Hike ... As It Stands

With today's comments from Philly Fed's Harker, the 50bp-hike-in-March crowd on the FOMC is looking pretty thin as it stands.

• Cleveland's Mester will be very important in that regard tomorrow to see her reaction to Jan inflation data but as it stood mid-last week, she didn't see a "compelling case".
  
• We'd have to imagine Evans + Williams + Brainard later this week will lean toward 25 (if they make any pronouncements on the subject at all; Kashkari didn't today). That leaves Waller and Bostic as the most likely potential 50s among scheduled Fed speakers the next few days.
• Of course, that's "as it stands" - we still get Feb jobs and CPI data in early March, prior to the FOMC meeting. But limited enthusiasm so far outside of Bullard for 50bp.
• Further to our 1153ET note, April Fed Funds futures (which incorporate the March FOMC decision) are now trading 46bp implied, pointing to 38bp of hikes in March (an inter-meeting hike in Feb has all but been priced out now). That's down 1.5bp on the day and up 11bp from last Friday's high - now back to 25bp priced in, with 50% chance of a 50bp hike.