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AUSSIE BONDS: Little Changed After US Tsys Finish Steady

AUSSIE BONDS
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ACGBs (YM flat & XM +0.5) are little changed after a choppy and somewhat indecisive first trading session of 2025 for US tsys. Policy uncertainties with the incoming Trump 2.0 administration, especially regarding tariffs, taxes, and regulations continue to be the focus. US tsy yields were several basis points lower early but reversed course after better-than-expected jobless claims and PMI Mfg.

  • Initial claims in the Dec 28 week fell to 211k from 220k. Final December S&P Global US manufacturing PMI reading showed less of a deterioration than implied by the flash estimate, coming in at 49.4 (49.7 prior, 48.3 prelim).
  • Friday US data: ISM mfg & prices paid at 1000ET. Fed speak: Richmond Fed Barkin, bankers assn address (text, Q&A) at 1100ET. On Saturday: SF Fed Daly & Fed Gov Kugler mon-pol panel event (no text, Q&A) at 1730ET.
  • Cash ACGBs areflat to 1bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -13bps.
  • The bills strip is +1 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced by April (127%), with a February cut at a 61% chance.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty. The next release is the S&P Global Composite & Services PMIs on Monday. 
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ACGBs (YM flat & XM +0.5) are little changed after a choppy and somewhat indecisive first trading session of 2025 for US tsys. Policy uncertainties with the incoming Trump 2.0 administration, especially regarding tariffs, taxes, and regulations continue to be the focus. US tsy yields were several basis points lower early but reversed course after better-than-expected jobless claims and PMI Mfg.

  • Initial claims in the Dec 28 week fell to 211k from 220k. Final December S&P Global US manufacturing PMI reading showed less of a deterioration than implied by the flash estimate, coming in at 49.4 (49.7 prior, 48.3 prelim).
  • Friday US data: ISM mfg & prices paid at 1000ET. Fed speak: Richmond Fed Barkin, bankers assn address (text, Q&A) at 1100ET. On Saturday: SF Fed Daly & Fed Gov Kugler mon-pol panel event (no text, Q&A) at 1730ET.
  • Cash ACGBs areflat to 1bp richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -13bps.
  • The bills strip is +1 across contracts.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed. A 25bp rate cut is more than fully priced by April (127%), with a February cut at a 61% chance.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty. The next release is the S&P Global Composite & Services PMIs on Monday.