June 22, 2022 06:10 GMT
- GBPUSD fell around 15 pips on that slightly softer core CPI print, but now back to prevailing levels.
- This probably does reduce the probability of a 75bp hike in August, so we may see a bit more of a move at 7:30BST when SONIA futures open.
- As we noted in our data preview, the MNI Markets team thinks a 75bp hike in August is very unlikely (despite markets pricing in around 56bp). We think the decision is between 25bp and 50bp with around a 60% probability of a 50bp hike - today's data does little to change that view.
- Key will now be next month's labour market and inflation prints.