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Little market reaction - but maybe more at 7:30BST

UK DATA
  • GBPUSD fell around 15 pips on that slightly softer core CPI print, but now back to prevailing levels.
  • This probably does reduce the probability of a 75bp hike in August, so we may see a bit more of a move at 7:30BST when SONIA futures open.
  • As we noted in our data preview, the MNI Markets team thinks a 75bp hike in August is very unlikely (despite markets pricing in around 56bp). We think the decision is between 25bp and 50bp with around a 60% probability of a 50bp hike - today's data does little to change that view.
  • Key will now be next month's labour market and inflation prints.
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