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Little Movement In SONIA Today,

STIR
HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Another flat, low volume start for SONIIA futures, with Bunds quickly giving up their German data-inspired gains, to trade in line to a touch below levels seen at the time of yesterday’s SONIA settlement.

  • BoE-dated OIS contracts are also little changed, showing ~35bp of ’24 cuts, with the first 25bp move fully discounted come the end of the Nov MPC and ~15bp priced through the Sep MPC.
  • Local headline flow remains centred on political matters, with the Conservatives still trailing heavily in the polls and Monday’s Sunak-Starmer debate still being assessed/critiqued.
  • The BoE’s latest DMP survey hits this morning (09:30). We will provide some colour on that release ahead of the event.
  • The ECB’s latest monetary policy decision will provide the macro focal point today, with any guidance surrounding the future path of monetary policy set to garner the most attention, assuming the widely telegraphed and expected 25bp rate cut is delivered.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.204+0.4
Aug-245.124-7.7
Sep-245.053-14.7
Nov-244.928-27.2
Dec-244.847-35.4
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Another flat, low volume start for SONIIA futures, with Bunds quickly giving up their German data-inspired gains, to trade in line to a touch below levels seen at the time of yesterday’s SONIA settlement.

  • BoE-dated OIS contracts are also little changed, showing ~35bp of ’24 cuts, with the first 25bp move fully discounted come the end of the Nov MPC and ~15bp priced through the Sep MPC.
  • Local headline flow remains centred on political matters, with the Conservatives still trailing heavily in the polls and Monday’s Sunak-Starmer debate still being assessed/critiqued.
  • The BoE’s latest DMP survey hits this morning (09:30). We will provide some colour on that release ahead of the event.
  • The ECB’s latest monetary policy decision will provide the macro focal point today, with any guidance surrounding the future path of monetary policy set to garner the most attention, assuming the widely telegraphed and expected 25bp rate cut is delivered.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Jun-245.204+0.4
Aug-245.124-7.7
Sep-245.053-14.7
Nov-244.928-27.2
Dec-244.847-35.4