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Little Net Movement On UK CPI

EGBS

Bund futures trade either side of pre-UK CPI data levels following the firmer-than-expected readings, but the data fails to have a lasting impact, leaving the contract +10 at 132.48.

  • The bullish technical cycle in the contract has extended.
  • Yesterday’s high was breached on the data, which puts initial resistance at 132.60, protecting the June 25 high (132.80).
  • Initial support is a little further away, at the 50-day EMA (131.62).
  • BTP and OATs futures also a touch firmer than settlement, but off best levels.
  • Final Eurozone CPI data and Fedspeak (Waller & Barkin) headline today’s macro calendar.
  • Elsewhere, German fiscal matters will be eyed, with the cabinet set to present the final 2025 draft budget. A EUR17bn budget gap needs to be filled.
  • German long end supply presents the highlight on the EGB auction front (EUR1bn of each of the 0% Aug-52 & the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund). Greece will come to market with 5s, while Italy will buyback up to EUR4bn of bonds.
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Bund futures trade either side of pre-UK CPI data levels following the firmer-than-expected readings, but the data fails to have a lasting impact, leaving the contract +10 at 132.48.

  • The bullish technical cycle in the contract has extended.
  • Yesterday’s high was breached on the data, which puts initial resistance at 132.60, protecting the June 25 high (132.80).
  • Initial support is a little further away, at the 50-day EMA (131.62).
  • BTP and OATs futures also a touch firmer than settlement, but off best levels.
  • Final Eurozone CPI data and Fedspeak (Waller & Barkin) headline today’s macro calendar.
  • Elsewhere, German fiscal matters will be eyed, with the cabinet set to present the final 2025 draft budget. A EUR17bn budget gap needs to be filled.
  • German long end supply presents the highlight on the EGB auction front (EUR1bn of each of the 0% Aug-52 & the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund). Greece will come to market with 5s, while Italy will buyback up to EUR4bn of bonds.