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Free AccessLloyds Bank: Fed Set High Hurdle for Lift-Off, Still Highly Accommodative
Lloyds Bank said the Fed's forward guidance set a "much higher hurdle for a rate hike (or 'lift-off'), indicating that it wants to see a return to "full employment" and inflation above its 2% target "for some time" before it starts to raise rates."
- Lloyds said the "updated 'dot-plot' showed Fed policymakers evenly split between interest rates starting to rise in 2022 or 2023, a change from last time when most didn't expect a rise until 2023. The median expectation for the number of rate hikes in 2023 also went up from 2 to 3, with a further 3 increases in the first forecast for 2024. However, Powell once again emphasized that too much should not be read into these forecasts given how uncertain the economic environment remains, which may have provided some reassurance to markets.
- Key part of Fed's message: US monetary policy is currently highly accommodative and that this position will only change very gradually even after it starts tapering. Consequently, interest rates look set to remain very low by historic standards for a long period of time. Nevertheless, monetary conditions, which have been very supportive of asset prices over the past few years, seem on course to become less accommodative over the next few years."
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.