October 24, 2024 11:05 GMT
LNG: Risks to LNG Market Heightened by Middle East Escalation: Platts
LNG
Escalating conflict in the Middle East has raised the prospect of disruption to gas trade, Platts said.
- With around 28 mcm/d of Israeli gas delivered to Egypt and around 3 mcm/d delivered to Jordan, both nations would likely seek emergency LNG cargoes if Israeli flows were curtailed for an extended period.
- Replacing Israeli volumes would require around nine cargoes per month for Egypt and three per month for Jordan.
- In a second scenario where, Israeli attacks prevent Iran from exporting gas, the most direct impact would be in Turkey. BOTAS holds a 9.6 bcm/y pipeline import contract for Iranian gas.
- While an attack is unlikely, it would push Turkey to buy an additional 7-8 LNG cargoes per month to cover the short fall.
- If multiple phases of escalation lead to a direct Iran-Israel conflict, Tehran may block ship traffic through the straits of Hormuz.
- Such a disruption would be significant, affecting 21% of global LNG trade. Any blockage would overwhelmingly impact Asian importers.
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