NEWS:
US (MNI): Federal Govt And Markets Expected To Close For Carter Funeral On Jan 9
The United States federal government and both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq markets are likely to close on January 9 to observe the state funeral of former US President Jimmy Carter, who died on Sunday. Additional details of the funeral have not been made public. Fortune notes: "Sitting presidents will typically make an address when one of their predecessors passes on, generally declaring a National Day of Mourning on the day of the funeral. That means the federal government will shut down for a day and both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq markets will not trade."
US (MNI): Trump Escalates Calls For Congress To Raise Debt Limit
US President-elect Donald Trump has escalated calls for Congress to raise the federal debt limit ahead of his inauguration on January 20, describing a 2023 deal between President Joe Biden and former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R) as, "one of the dumbest political decisions made in years." Under the terms of the Biden-McCarthy deal, the debt ceiling was suspended until Jan 1, 2025, in exchange for a mechanism to limit some government spending, known as the Fiscal Responsibility Act.
US (NYT): Trump Weighs In on Immigrant Visa Debate but Offers Little Clarity
He said in an interview that he had used the visas for skilled workers “many times.” But he has mainly used visas for unskilled workers like housekeepers. President-elect Donald J. Trump appeared to weigh in on Saturday on a heated debate among his supporters over the role of skilled immigrant workers in the U.S. economy, saying he had frequently used the visas for those workers and backed the program.
US/CANADA (MNI): Ministers Leave Florida w/Out Tariff Assurances From Trump's Team
Canadian Finance Minister, Dominic LeBlanc, and Foreign Affairs Minister, Melanie Joly, met on Saturday with two key members of US President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming cabinet to discuss strategy to avoid a 25% tariff that Trump has threatened to impose unless Canada takes steps to secure the border. LeBlanc’s spokesperson described the Florida meeting with Trump's Commerce Secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, and Interior Secretary/‘Energy Czar’ nominee, Doug Burgum, as “positive” and “productive”, noting the ministers “reiterated the shared commitment to strengthen border security" and "combat the harm caused by fentanyl." The spokesperson added that Lutnick and Burgum "agreed to relay information to President Trump.”
JAPAN (MNI): BOJ Fears Neutral Lower Than Previously Estimated
Officials at the Bank of Japan fear that the real neutral rate of interest could be even lower than the previously-estimated range of -1% to +0.5%, reducing the probability that it will be able to take its policy rate to a tightening cycle high of 1%, MNI understands.
ECB (BBG): ECB’s Knot Says Trade War Could Export China Deflation to Europe
China may start selling its products to Europe at discounted rates if the US starts a trade war by imposing new tariffs, according to European Central Bank Governing Council member Klaas Knot. In such a situation, “there is a chance that the Chinese will start offering their goods in Europe at lower and lower prices,” Knot said in an interview published in Dutch newspaper Volkskrant on Monday.
CORPORATE (BBG): Boeing Shares Fall After Deadly Crash of Jeju-Operated Aircraft
Boeing shares slide 4.8% in premarket trading on Monday after a 737-800 aircraft operated by Jeju Air crashed at Muan International Airport. Investigators are focusing on a possible bird strike or landing-gear failure, and an analyst said it’s unlikely the events were related to Boeing’s production.
DATA
SWITZERLAND DATA: KOF December Deterioration Was Broad-Based
The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer dropped to 99.5 in December, below consensus of 101.0 as well as November's 102.9 (upwardly revised by 1.1). This is the lowest index value since January.
- "The indicator bundles included in the Economic Barometer all contribute to the negative development. In particular, the indicator bundles for manufacturing and for other services, as well as the indicator bundles for the hospitality industry, for foreign demand and for private consumption decrease considerably.", KOF adds.
- Note that the SNB slightly lowered its 2025 growth outlook for the Swiss economy at its December meeting - to between 1.0% to 1.5% (from a prior 1.5% point estimate) despite a significantly lower policy rate. The SNB sees the largest risks from weaker international developments.
EUROPEAN INFLATION: Spain Core Accelerates, Headline Higher On Fuel, Leisure
Spain’s December preliminary HICP came in higher than expected on the yearly rate at 2.8% Y/Y (2.6% cons; 2.4% prior) and the sequential reading at 0.4% M/M (0.3% cons; 0.0% prior). The national CPI also came in above expectations on the yearly rate at 2.8% Y/Y (vs 2.6% cons; 2.4% prior); the sequential comparison was 0.4% M/M (vs 0.2% prior).
- Core CPI was 2.6% Y/Y (2.4% prior).
- The headline rate was driven higher by fuel prices, INE notes. "Leisure and culture prices increased more than in the same month of the previous year", they add.
- Overall, there is little colour in the release, so for full detail, especially on services prices, we will have to await the final data.
- For context, Spain represents 11% of the Eurozone HICP basket in 2024.
- Portugal HICP data will be due at 11:00 GMT, Ireland tomorrow, with the other major releases of the December round next week. Belgium HICP already came in at 4.4% Y/Y, decelerating four tenths vs November, the details of the release were tough to read too much into, however.
CROSS ASSET: Bunds Within Range of Lows, Higher Spanish CPI Leaves Little Mark
- Spanish inflation data came in ahead of expectations, with the headline driven by fuel prices as well as leisure. The release added some pretty to Bund prices, which shed ~20 ticks on release, but swiftly recovered the losses. Nonetheless, Bund futures remain well within range of cycle lows and the bear trigger at 132.71 - printed at the resumption of trade following the weekend.
- Currency markets trade with little conviction. The USD is marginally weaker as AUD, NZD and CAD recover off recent pullback lows, giving trade a consolidatory theme after fierce price action in the weeks leading up to Christmas.
- Stock futures are lower, pointing to another lower open on Wall Street - building on the weakness seen into the Friday close.
- Significant newsflow has been few and far between, with US domestic politics focusing on the internal Republican debate over H-1B visas and the passing of President Carter. We expect US bond and equity markets are to be closed across the Day of Mourning, set for January 9th.
- Focus for the duration of Monday trade will be on the MNI Chicago PMI at 1445GMT, expected to tick up to 43.0 from 40.2 previously. We anticipate volumes and broader liquidity to remain very light over the coming two sessions, particularly with tomorrow's European market closures and early closes elsewhere. EUR futures are posting cumulative volumes ~10% below an already subdued average for this time of day.
COMMODITIES: Gold Slippage Undermines Bullish Theme
Gold traded sharply lower on Dec 18. That move down undermines a recent bullish theme. A resumption of weakness would signal scope for an extension towards the key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position. A bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.57, the Oct 1 low, and $63.73, the Sep 10 low and key support.
- WTI Crude down $0.29 or -0.41% at $70.28
- Natural Gas up $0.32 or +9.31% at $3.706
- Gold spot down $6.44 or -0.25% at $2613.09
- Copper down $0.95 or -0.23% at $411.5
- Silver down $0.01 or -0.05% at $29.342
- Platinum down $3.07 or -0.33% at $921.83
EQUITIES: Bearish Equity Threat Remains Present
A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and Friday’s move lower highlights the end of the recent Dec 20 - 26 corrective bounce. An extension lower would expose 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support. A bull cycle in the Eurostoxx 50 futures contract remains intact, however, the recent move down highlights a corrective phase. Despite the latest bounce, a short-term bear threat remains present - for now. Key short-term support has been defined at 4829.00.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed lower by 386.62 pts or -0.96% at 39894.54 and the TOPIX ended 16.76 pts lower or -0.6% at 2784.92.
- Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 7.184 pts or +0.21% at 3407.326 and the HANG SENG ended 49.04 pts lower or -0.24% at 20041.42.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 53.28 pts or -0.27% at 19929.94, FTSE 100 lower by 37.9 pts or -0.47% at 8111.62, CAC 40 down 17.37 pts or -0.24% at 7337.98 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 13.31 pts or -0.27% at 4885.34.
- Dow Jones mini down 100 pts or -0.23% at 43239, S&P 500 mini down 15 pts or -0.25% at 6012, NASDAQ mini down 59.5 pts or -0.27% at 21639.75.
| Date | GMT/Local | Impact | Country | Event |
| 30/12/2024 | 1445/0945 | *** |  US | MNI Chicago PMI |
| 30/12/2024 | 1500/1000 | ** | US | NAR Pending Home Sales |
| 30/12/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed manufacturing survey |
| 30/12/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 26 Week Bill |
| 30/12/2024 | 1630/1130 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for 13 Week Bill |
| 30/12/2024 | 1800/1300 | * | US | US Treasury Auction Result for Cash Management Bill |
| 31/12/2024 | 0130/0930 | *** |  CN | CFLP Manufacturing PMI |
| 31/12/2024 | 0130/0930 | ** | CN | CFLP Non-Manufacturing PMI |
| 31/12/2024 | 1355/0855 | ** | US | Redbook Retail Sales Index |
| 31/12/2024 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index |
| 31/12/2024 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 31/12/2024 | 1400/0900 | ** | US | FHFA Home Price Index |
| 31/12/2024 | 1500/1000 | *** | US | Conference Board Consumer Confidence |
| 31/12/2024 | 1530/1030 | ** | US | Dallas Fed Services Survey |
| 02/01/2025 | 2200/0900 | ** |  AU | S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (f) |