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Local Analysts On Employment Report

CANADA
  • CIBC: Continued employment growth, a low jobless rate and high wage inflation means the BoC are likely to maintain a hiking bias next week rather than hint at the cuts priced into financial markets. However, with gains in employment appearing to be narrowing by sector, we still suspect that overall job gains will lag the rapid growth in the population as 2023 progresses. That will keep the BoC on hold this year, before allowing for rate cuts starting early in 2024.
  • RBC: Labour markets have gotten off to an exceptionally strong start in early 2023 but early cracks have been forming under the surface. The labour market itself is a lagging economic indicator and headwinds from aggressive rate hikes over the last year continue to build. We expect the BoC to stay there for the rest of this year.
  • Scotia: Canada’s jobs juggernaut continues to roll onward with convincing momentum. There are definitely forward-looking risks to the outlook, but at least so far the Canadian job market and the Canadian economy remain highly resilient. This continues to counsel against expecting rate cuts anytime soon.
  • TD: Today's report corroborates the signal we have been getting from credit/debit card spending data, and supports our forecast for Canadian GDP to come in around 2% for 1Q23. That is not the kind of growth the BoC wants to see when trying to inflation back to target. Although today's report isn't enough to get the Bank off the sidelines, the fact that nothing so far seems to be able to crack the Canadian jobs market juggernaut must be worrying.
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