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Local Analysts On GDP At 0830ET

CANADA
  • Consensus sees real GDP rising 0.3% M/M in April, broadly per the StatCan advance estimate of 0.2% with an analyst range of 0.2-0.5% M/M.
  • CIBC and RBC expect a similarly modest gain in the May estimate, with Scotia also seeing a small increase judging by manufacturing-heavy indicators with some upside risk from rebounding services.
  • Scotia currently see real GDP tracking at 3.8-4.4% SAAR in Q2, compared to the now outdated BoC forecast of 6% from the April MPR.
  • CIBC expect the dampening effects on growth to come from industries where supply constraints have been prevalent, so they “won’t provide any reassurances that this will lead to a cooling in inflation”.
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