Local Analysts On Tomorrow’s Labour Report

Consensus sees a 15k job gain and the u/e rate rising a tenth to 5.1%, with Scotia expecting a tighter labour market.

• CIBC: Annual revisions already released have smoothed out some of the monthly volatility seen in 2022 but Dec’s lowered 69k is still well above a pace consistent with only very modest GDP growth. Forecast 5k jobs growth in Jan with the u/e rate ticking up to 5.1%.
• RBC: We look for a small increase in employment (~5k) to add to the 176k surge over the prior four months and for the u/e rate to tick up to 5.1%, still just off multi-decade lows from the summer. Hours worked actually decreased in Dec despite strong job growth, with businesses typically cutting hours worked before moving to layoffs).

• Scotia: Looking for 15k job gain in Jan as statistical momentum favours another gain after the strength of the 69k rise in Dec, helping push the u/e rate to 4.9%. Expecting resilient wage growth as the three-month moving average trend for wages remained hot and lagging figures for major contract wage settlements have continued to accelerate.