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Local Analysts Respond to Single Digit Polish CPI

POLAND
  • Analizy Pekao: Core inflation is now at 0% M/M. Reductions in prices of frequently purchased goods significantly reduce consumers' inflation expectations, and when annualizing the monthly readings from the last 6 months, CPI inflation would already be clearly at NBP target.
  • ING: We are afraid that the NBP's excessive disinflationary optimism may cause the market to protest against a weaker zloty, because the disinflation process in Poland looks unstable compared to other countries. They add that the rhetoric of Glapinski next week will be very important, and an excessive display of single-digit inflation may raise fears that the NBP will return to a very lenient attitude.
  • MBank: Inflation dropped to single-digits with a bang. However, they note that the strong decline in core inflation is most likely the effect of free medicines, which was very difficult to capture analytically. Without this, core inflation would still be positive on a monthly basis.
  • PKO: The decline in CPI reflects a wide range of disinflationary processes, and the war price shock is slowly passing away. According to their estimates, core inflation (8.6%) is also in single digits.
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market NewsPolitical Market News
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3809 | edward.hardy@marketnews.com
EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market NewsPolitical Market News

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