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Local Analysts Still See 50bp Oct Hike Before Growing Caution

  • BMO: A jobs report without the drama for a change, and fully consistent with a slowing economy. Job conditions are certainly not cool enough to prompt the BoC to fully back off from its aggressive tightening but suggests that it may at least consider slowing the pace of hikes. We still lean to a 50bp hike this month, with the BOS (Oct 17) and CPI (Oct 19) having final say.
  • CIBC: The low u/e rate and still strong wage growth support a continued hawkish BoC yesterday and a 50bp hike at the next meeting. However, signs that a growing number of sectors are slowing down should bring a more cautious approach from policymakers after that.
  • National: The BoC has committed for other rate hikes, but this morning's data reinforces our view that a pause will be necessary soon to assess the delayed impact of its actions.
  • RBC: Loss of labour market momentum is unlikely to dissuade the BoC from further hikes with labour markets still very tight. Prior to key inflation data, we continue to expect at least another 50bp hike this month.
  • Scotia: Multiple measures continue to point to a still very tight job market, supporting wage gains in excess of productivity, adding to inflationary pressures and keeping the BoC on a tightening path.

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