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Local Assets Extend Post-Election Gains, Markets Expect Tight Run-Off

COLOMBIA
  • The Colombian peso has extended its intra-day advance, now gaining over 4% from Friday's closing levels. Furthermore the IBR swaps curve has extended its steepening with 10-year swap rates falling around 30 basis points.
  • Citigroup sees more upside in Colombian local bonds than in the currency following the vote result:
  • While the selloff in rates ahead of the election partly reflects a move in US rates and the perception that the local central bank is behind the curve, the term premium in Colombia looks high, they wrote
    • “TES still have room to rally, with both the TES and IBR curves bull flattening, and see more upside in bonds”
    • Since the Colombian peso was supported by specific flows into the election, the rally should be more limited
  • USDCOP down 4.11% at 3771.1
  • Colombia IBR Swaps:
    • 1-yr +2 bps at 8.82%
    • 2-yr -16 bps at 8.54%
    • 5-yr -28 bps at 8.31%
    • 10-yr -30 bps at 8.24%
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