Local By-Elections Continue To Highlight English Voter Realignment

A series of local council by-elections took place on Thursday 8 July, and the results - while not market moving - can be seen as demonstrative of a wider realignment of UK, and particularly English, voter politics. The historic alignment on political parties in England were largely along class/income lines, with working class voters largely backing Labour and middle class voters behind the Conservatives. However, what is increasingly prominent in determining voter preference is both which side the individual took in the EU membership referendum as well as where they fall on the social conservative vs social liberal spectrum. Below are two examples of this shift in voter alignment.

• Ardingly and Balcombe (Mid Sussex), council by-election result: Green: 36.9% (+13.6), Conservative: 33.4% (-5.6), Liberal Democrat: 27.8% (+1.0), Independent: 1.9% (+1.9). Green GAIN from Conservative. No Lab (-10.9) as prev.
• Mark Hall (Harlow), council by-election result: Conservative: 46.4% (+23.2), Labour: 41.7% (-0.9), Green: 7.3% (+7.3), Liberal Democrat: 4.6% (-5.0). Conservative GAIN from Labour. No UKIP (-24.6) as prev.
• The Mid-Sussex ward of Ardingly and Balcombe is a wealthy, rural area that was represented by the Conservatives for many years. A win for the environmentalist, left-wing, pro-Remain and socially liberal Green party represents a major shift in political tone for the area.
• The Mark Hall ward in Harlow is one that historically had been Labour, as had much of the borough - home to the third-highest proportion of social housing of any district in England. The Conservatives won a resounding victory in the May 2021 council elections, and have managed to continue this trend in yesterday's by-election. While the town has a largely working class voter base, the strong Leave vote in the area in 2016 has seen a strong shift to the Conservatives, who have picked up nearly all the former anti-EU UK Independence Party votes from previous elections.
• The impact of these shifts on the future of English and UK politics is likely to be significant. The centre-right Conservatives - while enjoying broad polling support at present - will have to find a way of retaining their pro-EU middle class southern English heartlands while holding onto their recent gains in Leave voting areas of northern England. For the centre-left Labour Party has to contend with the challenge of winning back white, working class voters, with much of the party's strength at present concentrated in urban areas with liberal social values, high support for the EU, and large ethnic minority populations.