Local Elections A Notable Setback For Erdogan & AKP

The 31 March local elections delivered a significant rebuke to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his right-wing Justice and Development Party (AKP), with the centre-left secular Republican People's Party (CHP) winning the largest number of provinces and the mayoralties of Turkey's five-largest cities (see 'Erodgan Suffers Heavy Defeats In Municipal Elections', 0818BST 2 Apr).

• The scale of the loss for the AKP - winning just 24 of Turkey's 81 provinces, compared to 25 for the CHP - could push Erdogan and the AKP to shift away from some of its more controversial or divisive policies in an effort to staunch the loss of support. This could extend to the foreign policy arena, with a more cooperative stance with regards to Greece or its NATO allies possible, as well as a shift away from the hardline socially conservative stances of some of his party's policies.
• In our pre-election breifing we noted the speculation that a strong AKP result could set the stage for Erdogan to seek constitutional amendment to allow him to run beyond 2028. Such a poor result acts as a notable personal rebuke, and could put paid to any attempts to extend Erdogan's rule beyond the current term limits.
• Nevertheless, there are still four years to go in Erdogan's presidential term, meaning there is little need for a haphazard change in policy. During his tenure Erdogan has built his position on combative rhetoric, and a sudden alteration to a more accomodative political stance with regards to the opposition is unlikely.