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Local Markets Re-Open Following Corpus Christi Holiday

BRAZIL
  • Attention at Friday’s open will be on the currency given USDBRL’s close proximity to key support at 4.8859, the May 15 low. Gains in commodity prices and the more optimistic feel for risk sentiment on Thursday may provide additional BRL tailwinds. Below here, the most notable support level comes in at 4.6910, the May 2022 lows.
  • While the local calendar is empty and political activity is also muted between the holiday and the weekend, market participants will be gearing up for the plethora of events next week, namely fresh US inflation data and the FOMC meeting/decision.
  • Monday’s BCB Focus survey will inevitably garner attention following the annual headline rate of IPCA inflation dipping to 3.94% earlier this week. Consistent downside surprises for inflation data have bolstered the calls for short-term rate cuts although the consensus appear to believe the June 21 Copom meeting will be too soon for a policy adjustment, in line with the central bank board’s most recent rhetoric.
  • In a poll conducted by Ipec for O Globo, there has been a drop in the “great/good” assessment of President Lula’s government to 37% compared to 39% in the April survey. In an assessment on how Lula is governing, approval dipped to 53% vs 54% in April and disapproval rose to 40% vs 37%.
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